|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 3, 2012 12:35:23 GMT -6
88% predictor: stock market from July 1 to Halloween... [hint]sometimes the 'Halloween Indicator' marks a stock market bottom
One talking head professional polster on a recent PBS program (I do not recall his name nor the program) stated that the best Presidential predictor is to measure the trend between July 1st and Halloween because he stated it had an 88% prediction rate: if down the incumbent was thrown out of office.
How reliable is this 88% predictor? stock market from July 1 to Halloween... I do not know...so make of it what you want.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 3, 2012 16:49:47 GMT -6
My view remains that this applies to the 'rich, Henries', upper 20% of incomes/wealth' group.
These people vote, contribute money, aggregate and raise money for politics.
If they are dissatisfied with their declining stock market portfolios...the wealth effect...then they will not help the candidates of their choice and more likely vote against the incumbent. I imagine their portfolios will most likely contain whatever is most popular at the time: bonds and blue chips, not NASDAQ indexes in my opinion. For example, Apple now constitutes a noticeable position in the capital weighted S&P500 plus most hedge funds.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 3, 2012 17:04:42 GMT -6
I believe that Obama (who never fails to speak of 'killing Obama') might go for a military action if he needs a boost, increase or improvement in the polling late Fall which would instantly create the top issue for the October Presidential debates all scheduled for October. Hitting Iran goes to the top of my list. Iran supplies Syria's Asad with money for buying Russian arms. ----------------------------- opps...yes, I meant to post killing Osama bin Laden aka Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden was born in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a son of Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden, a billionaire construction magnate [ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden ] Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=iraq&thread=10944&page=1#ixzz1zfzXBj5N
|
|