Post by jeffolie on Jul 27, 2012 15:28:48 GMT -6
China: more coal, oil, gas, double the US in 2050
Increasingly China will use more coal, oil, gas as its population becomes better paid and the cultural shifts to emulate the West.
The above title and below piece are straight line thinking that assumes little or no change in the direction of the world...just more of the same as far as the eye can see --- this never works out as predicted, change happens.
My jeffolie view: China's economy will crash as did Japan's centrally planned economy plus the aging can not easily be turned back as more become educated. Already 10% of the women refused to marry and have children inorder to pursue careers just as it started out in Japan. China will implode economically when its exports suffer from the current recession in the EU plus the upcoming Dollar crisis in 2014 and/or beyond. India remains disorganized but is not aging which will increasing replace China as the big cheap labor provider plus other regional countries including Indonesia and the Phillipines.
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"... All this development is being stitched together with high-speed rail and new highways to prepare for 600 million vehicles expected on the roads by 2050.
The U.S. automotive fleet, by far the largest in the world, is less than half that size.
China isn't hustling just to satisfy the demand from the United States and other countries for cheap merchandise. Increasingly, it is bent on meeting the needs of its own people.
more...
".... China relies on coal to meet about two-thirds of its energy needs. Despite major investments in solar, wind and nuclear energy, coal consumption continues to climb.Although China has the third-largest reserves in the world, it is reaching around the world for more. It overtook Japan this year as the world's largest coal importer, drawing mostly from Indonesia and Australia. Its imports are expected to double by 2015.
Those trends are worrisome to climate scientists, who say that in order to avoid a potentially catastrophic rise in global temperatures, worldwide carbon dioxide emissions must be cut in half by 2050.
For that to happen, China's emissions would have to peak by 2020, said Nobuo Tanaka, former director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises governments on energy issues. But by China's own projections, its output will rise at least 50% from current levels before peaking around 2035.
It would be all but impossible for other nations to compensate for such an increase, Tanaka said.
Chinese leaders say that capping emissions would cripple industrial growth and urban development in a country that still has 100 million poor people.
The industrialized countries polluted their way to prosperity, their argument goes, so why should the Chinese be penalized?
China's leaders also have sought credit for their population control policies, which they say averted 400 million births and thus billions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions.
At the same time, they acknowledge that the one-child policy was never meant to be permanent. When it was started in 1979, officials promised to revisit the issue in 30 years. There is some internal pressure and even more international pressure to lift the restrictions.
That worries Yu Xuejun, the director-general with the National Population and Family Planning Commission. The best course, he said, would be "a soft landing" with "incremental adjustments" so that the sacrifices he and others made in forgoing larger families are not erased by a baby boom.
"I cannot imagine if we had 400 million more people in China," he said.
www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/population/la-fg-population-matters4-20120727-html,0,4128486.htmlstory
Increasingly China will use more coal, oil, gas as its population becomes better paid and the cultural shifts to emulate the West.
The above title and below piece are straight line thinking that assumes little or no change in the direction of the world...just more of the same as far as the eye can see --- this never works out as predicted, change happens.
My jeffolie view: China's economy will crash as did Japan's centrally planned economy plus the aging can not easily be turned back as more become educated. Already 10% of the women refused to marry and have children inorder to pursue careers just as it started out in Japan. China will implode economically when its exports suffer from the current recession in the EU plus the upcoming Dollar crisis in 2014 and/or beyond. India remains disorganized but is not aging which will increasing replace China as the big cheap labor provider plus other regional countries including Indonesia and the Phillipines.
=================================
"... All this development is being stitched together with high-speed rail and new highways to prepare for 600 million vehicles expected on the roads by 2050.
The U.S. automotive fleet, by far the largest in the world, is less than half that size.
China isn't hustling just to satisfy the demand from the United States and other countries for cheap merchandise. Increasingly, it is bent on meeting the needs of its own people.
more...
".... China relies on coal to meet about two-thirds of its energy needs. Despite major investments in solar, wind and nuclear energy, coal consumption continues to climb.Although China has the third-largest reserves in the world, it is reaching around the world for more. It overtook Japan this year as the world's largest coal importer, drawing mostly from Indonesia and Australia. Its imports are expected to double by 2015.
Those trends are worrisome to climate scientists, who say that in order to avoid a potentially catastrophic rise in global temperatures, worldwide carbon dioxide emissions must be cut in half by 2050.
For that to happen, China's emissions would have to peak by 2020, said Nobuo Tanaka, former director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises governments on energy issues. But by China's own projections, its output will rise at least 50% from current levels before peaking around 2035.
It would be all but impossible for other nations to compensate for such an increase, Tanaka said.
Chinese leaders say that capping emissions would cripple industrial growth and urban development in a country that still has 100 million poor people.
The industrialized countries polluted their way to prosperity, their argument goes, so why should the Chinese be penalized?
China's leaders also have sought credit for their population control policies, which they say averted 400 million births and thus billions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions.
At the same time, they acknowledge that the one-child policy was never meant to be permanent. When it was started in 1979, officials promised to revisit the issue in 30 years. There is some internal pressure and even more international pressure to lift the restrictions.
That worries Yu Xuejun, the director-general with the National Population and Family Planning Commission. The best course, he said, would be "a soft landing" with "incremental adjustments" so that the sacrifices he and others made in forgoing larger families are not erased by a baby boom.
"I cannot imagine if we had 400 million more people in China," he said.
www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/population/la-fg-population-matters4-20120727-html,0,4128486.htmlstory