Post by jeffolie on Oct 27, 2012 15:03:51 GMT -6
GDP up: Obama spiked $115B military spending trick Chicago politics style
my thread on GDP juicing showed a change from 8 negative previous qtrs of "government consumption" which subtracted from GDP to a sudden burst of "government consumption". The reversal of 8 qtrs to a positive qtr resulted in .72% GDP gain of the 2.0% equalling about 1/3rd of the GDP gain from the surprise political trick of Pentagon spending.
my seat of the pants math: $16T GDP x .72% = $115B spike in military spending.
my jeffolie view: Obama spiked $115B military spending to juice up the GDP before the election. This Chicago styled political action most likely involved kickbacks to campaign contributions as happened with his MO in "green" contracts and loans. These contribution could have gone as not identified donors to Obama super PACs courtesy of the US Sup Ct decision.
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OCTOBER 27, 2012
The Pentagon's Timely Contribution to GDP
By GENE EPSTEIN
Gross domestic product grew an anemic 2.0% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter, with a surge in defense spending accounting for the gain. Also, a trio of economists' market picks.
Data-conspiracy theorists, take note.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday that real gross domestic product in the third (July-September) quarter grew at an annual rate of 2.0%, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. That figure represents the last report card on GDP growth before the presidential election. It's also pretty dismal. At this stage in the economic expansion, a reading of 3% should be considered disappointing and 4% par for the course.
Since the recovery began in third quarter '09, only two calendar quarters out of 13 have shown annual GDP growth at better than 3%.
Also, when we examine the 2% for third quarter 2012, something looks strange: the timing of the contribution attributable to the federal government. Private-sector GDP in the third quarter rose at an annual rate of just 1.3%, a shade down from 1.4% in the second quarter. What lifted that 1.3% to 2.0% was the government's share.
And not just government in general. The state-and-local share of GDP ran flat. All the heavy lifting was done by the federal government, almost all of it by defense spending.
Now, it would be one thing if defense spending had been generally contributing to GDP growth. But this is the first contribution since third quarter 2011—and the largest since second quarter 2009.
Is it possible that the Defense Department got the word (somehow) to bunch its spending in the third quarter to do its part for GDP in the release just before the election?
Perish the thought. I dislike such conspiracy theories; I also imagine plausible reasons could be given for what happened. But who knows?
online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904034104578066623754590736.html?mod=BOL_twm_col
my thread on GDP juicing showed a change from 8 negative previous qtrs of "government consumption" which subtracted from GDP to a sudden burst of "government consumption". The reversal of 8 qtrs to a positive qtr resulted in .72% GDP gain of the 2.0% equalling about 1/3rd of the GDP gain from the surprise political trick of Pentagon spending.
my seat of the pants math: $16T GDP x .72% = $115B spike in military spending.
my jeffolie view: Obama spiked $115B military spending to juice up the GDP before the election. This Chicago styled political action most likely involved kickbacks to campaign contributions as happened with his MO in "green" contracts and loans. These contribution could have gone as not identified donors to Obama super PACs courtesy of the US Sup Ct decision.
==================================
OCTOBER 27, 2012
The Pentagon's Timely Contribution to GDP
By GENE EPSTEIN
Gross domestic product grew an anemic 2.0% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter, with a surge in defense spending accounting for the gain. Also, a trio of economists' market picks.
Data-conspiracy theorists, take note.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday that real gross domestic product in the third (July-September) quarter grew at an annual rate of 2.0%, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. That figure represents the last report card on GDP growth before the presidential election. It's also pretty dismal. At this stage in the economic expansion, a reading of 3% should be considered disappointing and 4% par for the course.
Since the recovery began in third quarter '09, only two calendar quarters out of 13 have shown annual GDP growth at better than 3%.
Also, when we examine the 2% for third quarter 2012, something looks strange: the timing of the contribution attributable to the federal government. Private-sector GDP in the third quarter rose at an annual rate of just 1.3%, a shade down from 1.4% in the second quarter. What lifted that 1.3% to 2.0% was the government's share.
And not just government in general. The state-and-local share of GDP ran flat. All the heavy lifting was done by the federal government, almost all of it by defense spending.
Now, it would be one thing if defense spending had been generally contributing to GDP growth. But this is the first contribution since third quarter 2011—and the largest since second quarter 2009.
Is it possible that the Defense Department got the word (somehow) to bunch its spending in the third quarter to do its part for GDP in the release just before the election?
Perish the thought. I dislike such conspiracy theories; I also imagine plausible reasons could be given for what happened. But who knows?
online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904034104578066623754590736.html?mod=BOL_twm_col