Post by jeffolie on Jan 24, 2013 17:43:59 GMT -6
Slowly dying US Economy, No inflation for 2 years
The median income can not support a strong US Economy now and unless a significant change happens the current trend will continue. Debating the numbers and meaning of the numbers remains a political game unlikely to change until external events change such as the end of the EU most likely in 2014.
For now one can pick and chose number that please one's point of view.
my jeffolie view: the most common American continues to suffer in a large 'secular bear market' since 1999 creating a 'regular depression' while the upper 20% prosper ... this will most likely continue for 2013 and 2014 in America and then rapidly get worse into a bottom of 2016 period beginning.
The FED's words mean little as do any politician's promises.
The FED's actions mean a significant amount.
my jeffolie view: the FED's actions remained unchanged because the FED's money flow or transactions remained unchanged at about $85B per month ... despite the words, the money stagnations from the FED, the federal govt and private enterprises remain the same.
No wonder the markets yawned, remained just about the same.
No inflationary pressure for 2 YEARS: the FED's little changed actions transacting the same amount of $85B per month did nothing to put money into the hands of consumers nor bid up prices by consumers. Without clear inflationary wage push inflationary pressure the general population of American are not manicly seeking get inflation protection such as o buying gold or silver beyond those already doing so .... no additional buying of metals seems likely for 2 YEARS until the Dollar might be questioned.
my jeffolie view: my long term Politics Matters remains
Gold remains haven from collapsing currencies and very high inflation ... both unlikely in America for the next 2 years
Why?
Because the EU will start to collapse by the end of 2013 and most likey collapse into a reorganzied region by the end of 2014 resulting in declining retail sales in the EU plus a demand for the Dollar from escaping EU money.
After 2 years, the Dollar may come into question driving gold back up.
====================
Fed's Balance Sheet Tops $3 Trillion, But...
01/24/2013
... that's not true. The Fed's balance sheet, from a transaction basis, topped $3 trillion some 5-6 weeks ago. The only reason the Fed reported a $3 trillion number in today's H.4.1, or $3.013,333 trillion to be precise, is because all those MBS purchased in September and October following the September 13 reactivation of QE4EVA finally settled. In reality, the Fed's balance sheet is now some $3.12 trillion as there is about a $80-$120 billion lag between what the Fed has actually purchased, and what has settled. Luckily, at least Treasury purchases take far less to settle.
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Fed%20Balance%20Sheet.jpg
None of the above should come as a surprise to anyone: the Fed's balance sheet has been, even purely nominally, at $2.8/2.9 trillion for months. Wake us up when the Fed's balance sheet is $4 trillion, in precisely 11 months.
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Fed%20Balance%20Sheet%20Projected.jpg
The median income can not support a strong US Economy now and unless a significant change happens the current trend will continue. Debating the numbers and meaning of the numbers remains a political game unlikely to change until external events change such as the end of the EU most likely in 2014.
For now one can pick and chose number that please one's point of view.
my jeffolie view: the most common American continues to suffer in a large 'secular bear market' since 1999 creating a 'regular depression' while the upper 20% prosper ... this will most likely continue for 2013 and 2014 in America and then rapidly get worse into a bottom of 2016 period beginning.
The FED's words mean little as do any politician's promises.
The FED's actions mean a significant amount.
my jeffolie view: the FED's actions remained unchanged because the FED's money flow or transactions remained unchanged at about $85B per month ... despite the words, the money stagnations from the FED, the federal govt and private enterprises remain the same.
No wonder the markets yawned, remained just about the same.
No inflationary pressure for 2 YEARS: the FED's little changed actions transacting the same amount of $85B per month did nothing to put money into the hands of consumers nor bid up prices by consumers. Without clear inflationary wage push inflationary pressure the general population of American are not manicly seeking get inflation protection such as o buying gold or silver beyond those already doing so .... no additional buying of metals seems likely for 2 YEARS until the Dollar might be questioned.
my jeffolie view: my long term Politics Matters remains
Gold remains haven from collapsing currencies and very high inflation ... both unlikely in America for the next 2 years
Why?
Because the EU will start to collapse by the end of 2013 and most likey collapse into a reorganzied region by the end of 2014 resulting in declining retail sales in the EU plus a demand for the Dollar from escaping EU money.
After 2 years, the Dollar may come into question driving gold back up.
====================
Fed's Balance Sheet Tops $3 Trillion, But...
01/24/2013
... that's not true. The Fed's balance sheet, from a transaction basis, topped $3 trillion some 5-6 weeks ago. The only reason the Fed reported a $3 trillion number in today's H.4.1, or $3.013,333 trillion to be precise, is because all those MBS purchased in September and October following the September 13 reactivation of QE4EVA finally settled. In reality, the Fed's balance sheet is now some $3.12 trillion as there is about a $80-$120 billion lag between what the Fed has actually purchased, and what has settled. Luckily, at least Treasury purchases take far less to settle.
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Fed%20Balance%20Sheet.jpg
None of the above should come as a surprise to anyone: the Fed's balance sheet has been, even purely nominally, at $2.8/2.9 trillion for months. Wake us up when the Fed's balance sheet is $4 trillion, in precisely 11 months.
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Fed%20Balance%20Sheet%20Projected.jpg