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Post by jeffolie on Feb 8, 2013 17:29:49 GMT -6
Ian Gordon: the Kondratieff winter continues Episode 97: GoldMoney’s Dominic Frisby talks to Ian Gordon, President of Longwave Analytics. They discuss how the current Kondratieff winter could play out with regards to stocks, gold and paper money. Gordon states that we are still in a “Kondratieff winter”, as central bank money printing is delaying the clearance of the enormous debt accumulated over the three former Kondratieff seasons. He argues that natural market forces will overpower central bank interference, and warns of a significant downside risk for stocks. He also believes that a return to “natural” (i.e., gold and silver) money is inevitable, and mentions the possibility of China moving towards a gold backed currency. They discuss how gold and general equities are moving in opposite directions. This can best be seen in the Dow/gold ratio, which moves from low to high numbers as paper assets are desired and from high to low numbers as people seek a safe haven during a long-wave winter. His target for the current cycle is for less than one ounce of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. ! www.goldmoney.com/podcast/ian-gordon-the-kondratieff-winter-continues.html?gmrefcode=dollarc
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 8, 2013 17:57:55 GMT -6
Ian Gordon www.longwavegroup.com has investment time periods based on a DJIA to Gold RATIO that peaked at about 44 and now stands at about 8 ... going down to 1/4, .25 where the DJIA is 1000 and gold is $4000 .... my jeffolie view: I advocate trend following and have observed the Kondratiev groupees and gurus such as Ian Gordan for decades but rarely find them very good investment advisers for short term nor for intermediate term investment advise ... even so the most likely result should be a 2016 START of an American economic and political BOTTOMING period of 10 years or more followed by a popular war to restart the uptrend in growth of 30 years ... a Kondratiev type resurgence for capitalism.
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 9, 2013 17:03:26 GMT -6
The end game would be a Dollar crisis after an EU, euro crisis first ... I advocate trend following to be safe while predicting a 2016 starting of an American political and economic 'bottoming period' of 10 or more years ... meanwhile our family's investment funds remain 100% in metals, collectables since 2008 until the gold to DJIA ratio reaches parity or fractionally lower ... my sweet wife Olie and I find enough comfort to avoid losing sleep this way ==================================================== Update 2/8/2013 - Gold price & inflation trivia: 1869 peak in nominal dollars, $162. With a CPI-U correction to convert to 2012 dollars, that's $3,400. With our Consumer Purchasing Power Index (CPPI), it would be about $8,100.blog.nowandfutures.com/index.html
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