Post by jeffolie on May 22, 2013 11:39:25 GMT -6
" ... Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis ... "
Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab
The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE.
Why?
This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income. The profits are gone. The competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well.
The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May.
If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the FED may be PUSHING ON A STRING
Seasonality applies to coincide with this increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy depressing materials, metals, rates, jobs
==================================
Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis
05/22/2013
It seems that the recent rise in interest rates, instead of the typical (pre-depression) behavioral tendency to make people nervous and rush to lock in low rates, has once again stalled any hope of an organic housing recovery occurring. While the reams of hard data show that the housing recovery remains a fast-money investment-driven enigma (here, here, and here) - as opposed to real confidence-driven house-buying; we are still told day after day that housing is the backbone of the economy (despite construction jobs languishing and affordability plunging again). The fact of the matter is that the last 2 weeks have seen mortgage applications plunge at their fastest rate for this time of year (a typically busy time) since the financial crisis began. But that doesn't matter because housing must be recovering because the homebuilder ETF is up 2% today...
January and February we saw the rate rises (blue line dropping) spark a renewed (more behaviorally normal) interest in locking in low rates and buying... but since then the relationshio has invferted once again as the Bernanke put on bonds has now found its way into the real world. The last 2 weeks have seen rates rise and mortgage apps plunge...
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba.jpg
at the fastest rate for this time of year since the crisis began...
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba1.jpg
What could possibly go wrong?
Charts: Bloomberg
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/mortgage-applications-have-biggest-may-collapse-financial-crisis
Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab
The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE.
Why?
This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income. The profits are gone. The competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well.
The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May.
If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the FED may be PUSHING ON A STRING
Seasonality applies to coincide with this increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy depressing materials, metals, rates, jobs
==================================
Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis
05/22/2013
It seems that the recent rise in interest rates, instead of the typical (pre-depression) behavioral tendency to make people nervous and rush to lock in low rates, has once again stalled any hope of an organic housing recovery occurring. While the reams of hard data show that the housing recovery remains a fast-money investment-driven enigma (here, here, and here) - as opposed to real confidence-driven house-buying; we are still told day after day that housing is the backbone of the economy (despite construction jobs languishing and affordability plunging again). The fact of the matter is that the last 2 weeks have seen mortgage applications plunge at their fastest rate for this time of year (a typically busy time) since the financial crisis began. But that doesn't matter because housing must be recovering because the homebuilder ETF is up 2% today...
January and February we saw the rate rises (blue line dropping) spark a renewed (more behaviorally normal) interest in locking in low rates and buying... but since then the relationshio has invferted once again as the Bernanke put on bonds has now found its way into the real world. The last 2 weeks have seen rates rise and mortgage apps plunge...
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba.jpg
at the fastest rate for this time of year since the crisis began...
www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba1.jpg
What could possibly go wrong?
Charts: Bloomberg
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/mortgage-applications-have-biggest-may-collapse-financial-crisis