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Post by jeffolie on Jun 27, 2013 11:49:05 GMT -6
Housing Recovery Elusive for U.S. Homebuilders by Barry Ritholtz - June 27th, 2013 www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/0626chart.jpgInteresting chart form Dave Wilson showing how elusive the U.S. housing market’s rebound has been for the Homebuilders. Existing single-family homes sold at about the same pace in May as they did in January 2000, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. New home sales are running a full 45% lower. One new home was sold last month for every 9.7 resales. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk observed: “Builders weren’t able to compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.” Source: Housing Recovery Elusive for U.S. Homebuilders David Wilson Bloomberg, June 26, 2013 A few comments on House Prices and New Home Sales Bill McBride Calculated Risk, 6/25/2013 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/06/a-few-comments-on-house-prices-and-new.htmlwww.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/06/housing-recovery-elusive-for-u-s-homebuilders/================================================================ 30-Year Mortgage Rates Surge to 2-Year High: 4.46%"A buyer taking out a $200,000 mortgage at a 3.35 percent rate would pay $881 a month, according to Bankrate.com. The monthly mortgage payment jumps to $1,008 a month at a rate of 4.46 percent. That's an increase of $127 a month, which over 30 years adds $45,720 to the cost of the loan. The figures don't include taxes and insurance." www.cnbc.com/id/100849318
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 28, 2013 16:58:00 GMT -6
Housing Is ToppingBy Carl Swenlin 06/28/2013 The following is an excerpt from the June 28, 2013 blog for Decision Point subscribers. I watch the news as a part of my work, and lately I have been seeing a deluge of stories, reported by smiling, happy people, about how wonderful the housing market is. That alone makes me think that the housing market is about to top. I'm a "glass-half-empty" kind of guy, so I have always been skeptical about the housing recovery (recently described in a headline as "The Greatest Economic Story in the World"), but I think it is just another case of cheap (free?) money distorting a market. Well, the cheap money days are over, as mortgage rates are soaring. This link has a good rate chart that shows that since the first of May the 30-year fixed rate has increased by 20%, and the 15-year fixed is up 37%! Lenders are not waiting for the Fed. The chart below of the DJUS Home Construction Index is fairly typical of housing sector charts -- a mighty collapse from the 2005 top, a double bottom, then a strong advance out of the base. However, the rising trend line drawn from the 2011 low was violated this month, and the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) turned downward. www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u169/images/2013/djushb-27-jun-2013.jpgConclusion:Technical indicators tell us that the Home Construction Index has entered a correction phase. Pending Fed tightening and rising mortgage rates confirm the top we see on the chart.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 5, 2013 7:07:43 GMT -6
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