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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 6, 2007 15:13:36 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 27, 2007 18:12:49 GMT -6
The declining dollar counters the declining housing prices. The declining dollar is inflationary and the declining real estate is deflationary. Along with the stagnant economy we have the beginnings of STAGFLATION.
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Post by redwolf on Oct 10, 2007 7:30:11 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 10, 2007 8:35:09 GMT -6
Devaluing the dollar is in the lying, corrupt political and financial community's self interest.
The technicals and fundamentals show a persistent and long term decline is in place. I do not foresee any significant change to this long term declining trend as long as the attitude of the political and financial community remains intact.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 10, 2007 21:56:57 GMT -6
One interesting point in the article was about the yuan's peg to the dollar. The resulting devaluation of the yuan also makes Chinese goods cheaper in the rest of the world, like Europe and Japan.
Europe might become just as concerned with the yuan's dollar peg as we are.
Combining the U.S., Europe, and Japan-- it should be possible to apply even greater pressure on China to end its dollar peg.
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Post by redwolf on Jan 8, 2008 7:15:15 GMT -6
A friend of mine went to London over the holidays and said he could barely afford to eat because of the exchange rate. He found money for beer, though.  |
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 19, 2008 13:10:38 GMT -6
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 21, 2009 10:13:50 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 21, 2009 10:22:02 GMT -6
Currency markets are very, very big. It is my general opinion that government interventions to manipulate currencies are of limited sucessful duration and then the currencies correct despite governments' manipulations. How long China can sucessfully peg to the Dollar is unknown to me but eventually the peg will be broken.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 21, 2009 11:32:18 GMT -6
Currency markets are very, very big. It is my general opinion that government interventions to manipulate currencies are of limited sucessful duration and then the currencies correct despite governments' manipulations. How long China can sucessfully peg to the Dollar is unknown to me but eventually the peg will be broken. I think "how long" is the key issue. As China's economy sinks, it reduces their ability to buy US Treasuries and accumulate US dollars in their central bank. Eventually, China won't be able to pull excess US dollars out of the general circulation, causing the circulating amount of US dollars to rise, and thus allowing the dollar to devalue (as it should.) This does not appear to be happening yet, however, based on the latest Treasury report of foreign holdings of US debt--as of February 2009.  Still, China cannot continue buying US dollars if it doesn't have the money to do so. And if the US dollar devalues, it should at least improve our trade deficit with developing world countries such Canada, Japan, and western Europe. In my opinion, however, it'll be a long time before there's enough dollar devaluation to reduce imports from China. It's very difficult for currency devaluation to offset the US:China wage differential of at least 30:1. The US would truly have to Zimbabwe-ize its currency for that to happen. |
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 21, 2009 12:26:59 GMT -6
I am looking for a Dollar crisis in 2012-13. That may seem or may not seem to be a long time and I may well be wrong on my guess of 2012-13. I am only expecting a very rapid inflation, followed by the Fed's plan to fight inflation. Getting a Zimbabwe style US Dollar may or may not happen. It depends on the lack of confidence in the Dollar and the gaming of the currency system by speculators. Already the Chinese are cutting back on the purchases of Treasuries as the Fed has stepped in to monetize Treasuries. And, the Chinese are loading up on hard commodities such as copper ingots and copper resources across the world.
"And as the US dollar devalues, it should at least improve our trade deficit with developing world countries such Canada, Japan, and western Europe." This depends to some extent on the impact of future competitive currency devaluations by Canada, Japan, Mexico and western Europe. So far the Dollar has maintained its strength against the Euro as western Europe and Japan slide even deeper into the economic mess than the US.
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 21, 2009 12:44:30 GMT -6
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 21, 2009 13:22:20 GMT -6
I added a chart to my earlier post that shows foreign holdings of US Treasury Securities.
Upon closer scrutiny, foreign holdings have increasin based exclusively on shorter-term Treasury bill purchase (3-month, 6-month, and 12-month maturities.)
In contrast, purchase of longer-term Treasury bonds & notes does seem to have stopped. Since June 2008, longer-term Treasury holdings have actually declined slightly—from $1.684 trillion down to $1.677 trillion (as of February 2009).
It is the purchase of these short-term Treasuries that has been the source of the increase in foreign holdings of US Treasury debt. These holdings have more than doubled—from $226.6 billion in June 2008 to $521.2 billion in February 2009.
To me, in my own non-expert view, this looks like a really dangerous situation—especially with our Government and the Fed giving money away to bankers at an accelerating rate.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 21, 2009 15:41:53 GMT -6
Once again, Denninger is right on target. The rest of his post is even better: " That's a declaration of economic warfare and the fact that such governments have issued that sort of threat, if its true, needs to be disseminated far and wide and needs to also result in an immediate and total consumer boycott of all products made by such nations.
I'm dead serious here folks....
The fact of the matter is that all of these banks were engaged in mathematically impossible schemes in their lending....
Therefore, these foreign interests were intentionally buying something they knew was destined to default with the only possible way to avoid a loss being extortion directed toward the government.
That's a declaration of economic war and we the people of this nation must not permit it....
When you engage in a transaction that must mathematically lose money there are only 2 possible explanations for your act:
[1] You're too dumb to understand what you're doing.
[2] You intend to practice extortion when the inevitable result occurs...and you intend to avoid the loss on through unlawful conduct later.
In this case China had every reason to desire Citibank to grant credit in a wanton and reckless manner to Americans, as that allowed Americans to buy their imported products manufactured in China at a rate that was otherwise impossible.
Since the mathematics of such "growth rates" in spending were impossible to sustain it was therefore clear and obvious at the time they bought the bonds that such "investments" would inevitably lead to a loss at some point in the future.
Since "stupidity" is not likely when a sovereign is involved I am forced to conclude that the Chinese government intended to extort The United States at the time of the purchase and thus this chain of events constitutes an act of economic warfare.
Since our government has refused to tell Wung-Funkem-You to go stuff it up his posterior we the people are therefore compelled to boycott all products of Chinese origin." Amen. |
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Post by beatle on Aug 23, 2009 12:54:57 GMT -6
If the dollar de-values to the point where it loses its status as an international currency, running the printing presses to pay our credtors won't suffice.
We'd be like every other country...pay the bills with an export, or be refused the goods.
Our exceptional position of being able to print money accepted anywhere with nothing to back it is the only reason we've been able to increase trade deficits every year. Other nations can't do that. Mexico can't pay its bills with Pesos. Iceland can't pay its bills by printing more Kroner.
The Iceland korner has become near-worthless with the scams perpetrated on the Iceland financial system. Iceland can't earn enough in foreign exchange to import so much as an apple. Everything it earns with exports goes to pay foreign creditors. A position the U.S. can find itself in down the line if it doesn't stop flooding the world with dollars.
China is converting its economy towards being a domestic economy rather than an export driven one...and has a one billion person domestic market to do that with. It's de-coupling from the U.S. As Soros said, "The U.S. consumer as the driving engine of the world economy is done. Finished. It can't continue." China gets that. It's also been pushing for a replacement of the dollar as an international currency.
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Post by bchurch on Oct 1, 2009 3:17:26 GMT -6
Hi! Visit the page below. I am quite new to them but I find they are almost ludicrously concerned with USD towards other currencies. The address is: www.marketwise.us |
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Post by joe6pack on Oct 2, 2009 11:59:42 GMT -6
A friend of mine went to London over the holidays and said he could barely afford to eat because of the exchange rate. He found money for beer, though. In Russia the price drop in vodka parallels their dropping ruble. |
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