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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 10, 2007 14:23:07 GMT -6
Retail Sales, adjusted for a annual Consumer Price Index increase of 2.4%, have declined by 0.4% from January 2006 to January 2007. This can be seen from the chart below under the "adjusted" numbers for Retail Sales. February's non-inflation adjusted Retail Sales increased 0.1%. However, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in February. Thus, after adjusting for inflation, February Retail Sales declined -0.3%. Needless to say, declining Retail Sales are not consistent with a "healthy" or "growing" economy. In fact, it indicates an economy that is circling the drain.
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Post by rjfliberal07 on Apr 10, 2007 20:14:44 GMT -6
What if that Consumer Price Index gain of 2.4 Percent is understated? Would that mean retail sales have declined even more? I believe the government uses hedonics and messes with the inflation numbers by substituting products that go up in price with ones that don't go up as much. So I have heard inflation could be as high as 8 to 10 percent.
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Post by blueneck on Apr 14, 2007 7:54:20 GMT -6
I have heard the same thing, that the real number is 8-9%, if you factor in education, health, fuel, food, utilities and other things like local taxes that keep going up up up, while wages stay flat flat flat
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 14, 2007 16:25:02 GMT -6
What if that Consumer Price Index gain of 2.4 Percent is understated? Would that mean retail sales have declined even more? I believe the government uses hedonics and messes with the inflation numbers by substituting products that go up in price with ones that don't go up as much. Yes, it means retail sales would have declined more. I don't believe the government's inflation numbers either. I just use them because they are at least acceptable to most on the Right. However, the manipulations used to keep it low are legendary. Hedonics, substitution, and owner's equivalent rent are just a few of the manipulations. I think the whole idea of a "core" inflation rate is idiotic. If consumers spend more money on food and energy (which are excluded from the core), obviously they'll have less money to purchase other goods. So an increase in food & energy prices would reduce the measured "core" index. Which is exactly what's happening. Also, thanks to "hedonics," the value of that crappy $600 computer you just bought is put at $1,000. That's because the Bush government, in its infinite wisdom, has decided that this over-priced $600 computer (worth about $300 in reality), is actually worth $1,000. Is there a reason for this? Yes, there certainly is. Because the government said so. (Remember, Bush is the great "Divider"-- uh, I mean the "Decider") Hedonics, et al, reduce the concocted numbers for inflation. Which increases the manipulated number for real GDP. And it artificially increases real wages. It also removes any imperative for Bernanke to raise interest rates to control inflation. This allows the Bush plutocracy to claim Americans are doing better than they are.
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Post by rjfliberal07 on Apr 14, 2007 23:17:29 GMT -6
So this is the reason why the dollar keeps falling slowly but slowly over the last few years? Is it because the Fed is not raising interest rates fast enough? I hear China raised its rates, and Europe or was it Japan did so as well.
I love how the "Wall-Street Yahoos" keep saying the Fed might cut interest rates sometime soon. How can the Fed do this when imported goods prices will skyrocket? I don't think many Americans would shop at Wal-Mart then if a pair of socks from China went from a couple of bucks to like $20 dollars. This is where the old saying "don't put all your eggs in one basket" rings true. Wal-Mart's extreme dependence on China could eventually be it's downfall if the currency value of the dollar plunges. Domestic Manufacturers probably won't mind though. They probably would benefit by a surge in orders for products made domestically that would be too expensive to manufacture overseas.
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Post by blueneck on Apr 15, 2007 6:16:14 GMT -6
One can only hope - that would be a red letter day for US based small to medium mfrs and the US middle class ![:D](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png) I wonder if we may already be seeing some of this in Walmart's lackluster sales compared to its competitors? I wonder if one of the reasons we haven't seen the fed move away from the artificially low interest rates because of Walmart's lobbying clout?
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