Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 12, 2007 2:51:15 GMT -6
Friday's Retail Sales report from the Census Bureau showed a -0.2% decline in Retail Sales from March to April. (This can also be seen at Briefing.com's Retail Sales report.) This was much worse than the +0.6% predicted increase. April's seasonally-adjusted $372.034 billion was -$0.843 billion less than March's $372.876 billion. This contrasts with the previous year's March-to-April increase of +$3.352 billion. These numbers are all in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars. Adjusting Retail Sales by April's Consumer Price Index increase of 0.6%, the April Retail Sales number declines to $369.815. This leaves an inflation-adjusted decline of -$3.060 billion. This leaves a 1-month
"real" decline in Retail Sales of -0.8%.
The degree of decline in April Retail Sales is NOT typical. In 2006, April's seasonally-adjusted Retail Sales increased over March of 2006. The figures for 2007 showed a non-typical decline. This can best be seen from the bar graph below from Briefing.com.
The long-term downward trend in Retail Sales can be seen from the line graph below from Briefing.com.
The biggest decline was in Building Materials, which declined -2.3% (in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars). Apparel sales declined -2.0% in current dollars.General Merchandise sales declined -1.2%. Autos and auto parts sales declined -1.0%.
The biggest contribution to the Retail Sales total is from Motor Vehicles and Parts, which account for roughly 20% of the total. Food & Beverage Stores account for 12.8% of the total, while Food Services & Drinking Places account for 10% of the total. Thus the total food-related contribution is almost 23%. General Merchandise Store sales account for 12.7%, while Miscellaneous Store Retailers and Non-store Retailers account for 2.76% and 6.5% respectively. Thus the total for all "General Merchandise" is 22%.
Gasoline Station Sales account for 9.4% of the total. Building Materials account for 7.7% of the total. Health Care expenses account for 5.3% of the total. Clothing & Accessories account for 5.0% of the total.
Today's overall Retail Sales report from the Census Bureau is consistent with yesterdays same-store sales decline. Consumer spending is declining, due to declining spendable consumer wealth. Real wages have declined since October 2006. Spending financed by home equity extraction is declining, due to declining home equity.
Given that consumer spending accounts for 70% of all economic activity, a sustained decline in consumer spending will cause a decline in our overall economy.
A recession is clearly in the works. It's only a matter of time.
"real" decline in Retail Sales of -0.8%.
The degree of decline in April Retail Sales is NOT typical. In 2006, April's seasonally-adjusted Retail Sales increased over March of 2006. The figures for 2007 showed a non-typical decline. This can best be seen from the bar graph below from Briefing.com.
The long-term downward trend in Retail Sales can be seen from the line graph below from Briefing.com.
The biggest decline was in Building Materials, which declined -2.3% (in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars). Apparel sales declined -2.0% in current dollars.General Merchandise sales declined -1.2%. Autos and auto parts sales declined -1.0%.
The biggest contribution to the Retail Sales total is from Motor Vehicles and Parts, which account for roughly 20% of the total. Food & Beverage Stores account for 12.8% of the total, while Food Services & Drinking Places account for 10% of the total. Thus the total food-related contribution is almost 23%. General Merchandise Store sales account for 12.7%, while Miscellaneous Store Retailers and Non-store Retailers account for 2.76% and 6.5% respectively. Thus the total for all "General Merchandise" is 22%.
Gasoline Station Sales account for 9.4% of the total. Building Materials account for 7.7% of the total. Health Care expenses account for 5.3% of the total. Clothing & Accessories account for 5.0% of the total.
Today's overall Retail Sales report from the Census Bureau is consistent with yesterdays same-store sales decline. Consumer spending is declining, due to declining spendable consumer wealth. Real wages have declined since October 2006. Spending financed by home equity extraction is declining, due to declining home equity.
Given that consumer spending accounts for 70% of all economic activity, a sustained decline in consumer spending will cause a decline in our overall economy.
A recession is clearly in the works. It's only a matter of time.