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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 16, 2007 15:19:40 GMT -6
Once again, the Right-Wing Corporate media, along with the Federal government, have confabulated a low inflation rate. Once again, they've selectively focused on only 1 number, the "core" CPI, while ignoring the overall monthly CPI increase of +0.7%. (which, if annualized, comes out to a yearly rate of increase of +8.4%.) In fact, the overall Consumer Price Index has increased 3.05% in the 1st 5 months of 2007 alone. The annualized increase during the 1st 5 months of 2007 is +7.4%. The "tame" inflation rate during the last 1/2 of 2006 has been replaced by a rapid rise in 2007. No doubt some will claim that inflation rises faster during the 1st 5 months of the year. However, the 3.05% rise in inflation during the 1st 5 months of 2007 is faster than during any previous year under Bush. The 1st 5 months of 2006 were the closest, with an increase of +2.9%. However, the January through May increase was only +2.1% in 2005, +2.6% in 2004, +1.44% in 2003, +1.75% in 2002, and +2.1% in 2001. Below is a graph of the CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note the rapid acceleration in recent months. Inflation is clearly rising faster in 2007 than it has during any other time since 2001. The assessment that inflation is "under control" is not just "spin." It is factually wrong.
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Post by liberalcapitalist on Jun 16, 2007 15:58:28 GMT -6
Unlawful,what would you estimate is the actual rate of inflation?I had a rather heated exchange with someone on a message board-he said inflation was 'tame' and 'under control'(according to Uncle Sugar),I said its actually somewhere between 6-10 %.I may be off,but from what I read (here and other sites) I don't think I'm that far off.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 17, 2007 0:39:10 GMT -6
Unlawful,what would you estimate is the actual rate of inflation?I had a rather heated exchange with someone on a message board-he said inflation was 'tame' and 'under control'(according to Uncle Sugar),I said its actually somewhere between 6-10 %.I may be off,but from what I read (here and other sites) I don't think I'm that far off. I'd generally agree with you that it's somewhere between 6-10%. There's really no good measure of inflation. But I have a system for making a guesstimate and getting some kind of idea. Though I think all currencies are overvalued, it's still helpful to compare dollar devaluation against other currencies. Since at least half of the world's currencies aren't pegged to the dollar, the devaluation (or lack of) can be added to the annual U.S. CPI measure of 2.7%. $19 trillion of the world's $46 trillion GDP is denominated in either Euros ($13 trillion), Japanese yen ($5 trillion) and British pounds ($2 trillion). So I'd add the proportional depreciation of the dollar against those currencies to the CPI-measured inflation rate. This would come out as follows: Euros: +6.6% x ($13 trillion/$46 trillion) = +1.8% Japan: -8.1% x ($ 5 trillion/$46 trillion) = -0.88% Britain:+7.4% x ($ 2 trillion/$46 trillion) = +0.32% 1.8 - 0.88 + 0.32 = +1.24% 1.24% would be the proportioned loss in value of the dollar in these 3 currencies. I'd add that to the current CPI of 2.7%, making this total almost 4%. The price of precious metals is the other part of my guesstimate. It would be ideal to come out with some combination of the increase in value of gold, silver & platinum. However, since gold appreciation comes out midway between silver & platinum appreciation, I'll use just gold price increases. Gold's annual price increase was +13.2% over the last year. However, given that gold prices have probably also been inflated due to the world money supply increase, gold price appreciation probably overstates inflation. Since I believe gold overstates inflation, while the CPI combined with dollar devaluation understates inflation, I'd put the true inflation rate somewhere between 4% and 13.2%. I think it's a lot closer to 13.2% than it is to 4%. Using these numbers, I'd put true inflation at 9-10% over the last year. Again, this is just my own guess. Clearly the government is understating inflation with the CPI. Just as clearly, most nations are printing excess money (or creating it through easy credit). Since almost all nations are doing this, including China with its USD-pegged currency, the true inflation rate must be greater than the CPI + dollar devaluation. Since gold, silver, and platinum have all risen tremendously over the last year (and last 6 years as well), the chances of the prices increases being due only to over-investment/speculation is small. However, the chances of those price increases being due exclusively to inflation are unlikely as well. Thus, I think a reasonable estimate of inflation is somewhere in between.
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Post by beachbumbob on Jun 20, 2007 6:01:02 GMT -6
pretty obvious inflation has been running in the 6-10% range for years, and the BLS has been putting out cooked numbers M3 money supply number which indicates the number of dollars being placed in the economy pretty well follows the 8-10% range for years, no small reason why that number been killed for release
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