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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 14, 2007 2:09:20 GMT -6
This month's Retail Sales of $376.051 billion in current dollars was only 2.2% above July 2006's pre-revision $367.9 billion (which has since been revised downward to $364.225 billion). Meanwhile the July 2006 to June 2007 Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% (July 2007 is not available yet). This means that the real, inflation adjusted change in Retail Sales would have declined -0.2% (without the downward revision of last year's Retail Sales). The reported consumer spending "increases" (which have sustained the economy) are mainly the result of downward revision of previous numbers, in addition to inflation. If the anticipated July Consumer Price Index increase of 0.2% is factored in, it would make the real, inflation-adjusted change between July 2006 and July 2007 of -0.4%.
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Post by blueneck on Aug 14, 2007 4:05:36 GMT -6
Since the home ATM has been tapped out - I would only look for continued slowdowns in the retail sector
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 14, 2007 15:09:22 GMT -6
A recession IMHO started in July.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 14, 2007 17:41:12 GMT -6
Below is an excerpt from economist Nouriel Roubini discussing the latest Retail Sales report, along with early results from August, showing declines. " First, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities reported today the seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store retail sales: in the last week ending on August 11th they were down 0.9% relative to the previous week; and in the previous week ending August 4th they were down 0.3% relative to the previous week. So for the first half of August such sales are a negative 1.3% compared to July. On a year over year basis, such sales are up only 2.3%, i.e. given that inflation is higher than 2.3% today real chain store retail sales are down.
Second, the same picture comes from the data on chain store sales provided by the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index (this is a sales-weighted index of same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general merchandise retailers including about 9,000 stores). So far in August 2007 such sales are 0.6% below their July 2007 level. On a year over year basis, such sales – as measured by Johnson Redbook - are up a mediocre 2.3%; again this means that chain store retail sales are down in real terms relative to a year ago.
The woes reported today by two major retailers such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot are thus a clear and worrisome barometer of the problems faced by the US consumer and the US economy...." In summary, August sales are worse than July's, and the year-over-year change in real dollars is actually negative.
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