Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 5, 2007 18:21:08 GMT -6
Today's Payroll Employment report of 110K was again greeted with typical false optimism. Adding to this was the upward revision of August's payroll numbers, from the initial -4K up to +89K. However, none of August's upward came from Manufacturing or Construction. The August revisions came from upward revision of Government employment, from the previously published -28K to +57K. This +85K change alone would account for nearly all of the +93K revision. August's upward revisions came exclusively from the Service sector area.
Goods producing jobs declined -33 K. Construction jobs declined -14 K, while Manufacturing declined another -18 K. (Numbers don't add up due to rounding.)
The big picture on job growth, however, is much worse. It's been the general consensus that 150K new jobs must be created per month to keep up with (participating) Labor Force growth. This number is easy to corroborate. From March to September, the working age population increased 1.427 million. Current unemployment is 4.7%, which means that the "employment" percent is 95.3%. The current Labor Force Participation rate is 66.0%. Calculating for the March through September period:
1.427 million X 0.953 X 0.66 = 897,000 jobs.
Since this was over a 6-month period, dividing 897,000 by 6 months gives 149,592 jobs per month--roughly the same as the consensus estimate of 150,000 job/month needed to keep up with labor force growth. (and without any change in the Unemployment rate).
Based on the actual increase in the working age population, it would have taken 897,000 new jobs to keep up with the predicted Labor Force growth1.
How many net jobs were actually created from March 2007 through September 2007?
Only 3,000. September's total employment of 146,257,000 is only 3,000 more than March's 146,254,000. And this is over a 6-month period. These are the government's own numbers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The numbers can be seen from the BLS summary below. (Both December 2006 & March 2007 numbers are underlined in red. Current numbers are underlined in blue. )
The sum total of jobs created in both the 2nd quarter AND the 3rd quarter was only 3,000. Viewed another way the average monthly job growth was only 500 -- only -149,029 less than needed to keep up with Labor Force growth.
This is what Bush & media propagandists refer to as "solid job growth."
A "solid recession" is more like it.
1
The BLS-reported Labor Force growth, however, was much less than the predicted 897,000 increase. (derived from the working age population increase, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate.) The BLS reported only a 485,000 increase in the participating Labor Force between March and September of 2007. This discrepancy is due to the non-trend decline in the "Not-in-Labor-Force" number-- the number who have allegedly dropped out of the labor force.
The "expected" fraction of Labor Force dropouts, with a participation rate of 66% would 34%. This would have given a predicted increase of only 485,180 in the Not-in-Labor-Force number. Instead, the number was 942,000, for a drop-out rate of 66% from March through September. And the Labor Force Participation Rate for the working age population increase was only 34%, instead of 66%.
The number of new drop-outs from the Labor Force were almost 2 times the number of new entrants.
Another indicator of "non-solid" job growth.
Goods producing jobs declined -33 K. Construction jobs declined -14 K, while Manufacturing declined another -18 K. (Numbers don't add up due to rounding.)
The big picture on job growth, however, is much worse. It's been the general consensus that 150K new jobs must be created per month to keep up with (participating) Labor Force growth. This number is easy to corroborate. From March to September, the working age population increased 1.427 million. Current unemployment is 4.7%, which means that the "employment" percent is 95.3%. The current Labor Force Participation rate is 66.0%. Calculating for the March through September period:
1.427 million X 0.953 X 0.66 = 897,000 jobs.
Since this was over a 6-month period, dividing 897,000 by 6 months gives 149,592 jobs per month--roughly the same as the consensus estimate of 150,000 job/month needed to keep up with labor force growth. (and without any change in the Unemployment rate).
Based on the actual increase in the working age population, it would have taken 897,000 new jobs to keep up with the predicted Labor Force growth1.
How many net jobs were actually created from March 2007 through September 2007?
Only 3,000. September's total employment of 146,257,000 is only 3,000 more than March's 146,254,000. And this is over a 6-month period. These are the government's own numbers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The numbers can be seen from the BLS summary below. (Both December 2006 & March 2007 numbers are underlined in red. Current numbers are underlined in blue. )
The sum total of jobs created in both the 2nd quarter AND the 3rd quarter was only 3,000. Viewed another way the average monthly job growth was only 500 -- only -149,029 less than needed to keep up with Labor Force growth.
This is what Bush & media propagandists refer to as "solid job growth."
A "solid recession" is more like it.
1
The BLS-reported Labor Force growth, however, was much less than the predicted 897,000 increase. (derived from the working age population increase, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate.) The BLS reported only a 485,000 increase in the participating Labor Force between March and September of 2007. This discrepancy is due to the non-trend decline in the "Not-in-Labor-Force" number-- the number who have allegedly dropped out of the labor force.
The "expected" fraction of Labor Force dropouts, with a participation rate of 66% would 34%. This would have given a predicted increase of only 485,180 in the Not-in-Labor-Force number. Instead, the number was 942,000, for a drop-out rate of 66% from March through September. And the Labor Force Participation Rate for the working age population increase was only 34%, instead of 66%.
The number of new drop-outs from the Labor Force were almost 2 times the number of new entrants.
Another indicator of "non-solid" job growth.