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Post by jeffolie on Oct 12, 2007 11:24:46 GMT -6
Retail Sales Strong in September From the WSJ: Retail Sales Rose in September; PPI Rebounds on Energy Prices U.S. retail sales climbed vigorously in September, rising at double the rate expected despite weak demand for housing-related goods as consumers spent strongly on cars. U.S. wholesale prices rebounded last month, fueled by gains in the cost of food and energy, while pipeline pressures intensified modestly, a government report showed. Still, core inflation was lower than expected, so the report alone won't dissuade the Federal Reserve from lowering rates again when it meets later this month. Retail sales increased by 0.6%, the Commerce Department said Friday. Sales went up an unrevised 0.3% in August. This is definitely unexpected. calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/retail-sales-strong-in-september.html
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 12, 2007 17:07:07 GMT -6
It's not only "unexpected", it's hard to believe. Though Friday's Retail Sales report shows "growth," it is much less than claimed. Year-to-date growth for 2007 is less than 1/2 that of last year's January thru September period. The original report for September 2006 showed a year-to-date total of $3,318,375,000,000--which was +6.7% greater than the previous year. Today's report for September 2007 showed a year-to-date total of $3,222,864,000,000, which is +2.9% greater than the first 9 months of 2006. (The previous year's total was downwardly revised, allowing for the false claim of a +3.9% increase.) Below is a modified copy of the Census Bureau's Retail Sales report from today (on top), superimposed on the September report from 1 year ago (on the bottom). Notice how the stats for the originally published report for Sept. 2006 were revised downward, making this September's report look better. Note the comparison between the current report's downward revision of Sept. 2006 number, compared with last year's report for September 2006. Both are underlined in red. (Again, the top half is from Sept. 200 7.....the bottom half is from Sept. 200 6.) Using the originally posted Retail Sales numbers, the year-to-date increase is only 2.9% (shown in red), instead of 3.9% as shown in the current report. Using the original September 2006 numbers, Retail sales have increased only 2.9% year-to-date. The previous year's ytd increase was +6.7%, more than double the current number. Adjusting the current numbers for a 2.3% inflation rate, this leaves a real increase of only +0.6%. Retail Sales are 1/2 of Consumer Spending, which is currently 74% of GDP. Thus, the 37% of GDP composed of Retail Sales has only increased +0.6%. That's a huge chunk of our GDP, and further refutes the claims of an economy that is "strong, and getting stronger."
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 13, 2007 15:51:20 GMT -6
from the Daytona Beach New-Journal Online (Originally from the Associated Press): Stores suffer slow September 10/12/07 " With disappointing September sales behind them, the nation's retailers are now left with a big mess: piles of cashmere sweaters, coats and other heavy fall items that have been languishing on their shelves because of the steamy weather.
For many merchants who need to quickly mark down fall leftovers to make room for holiday goods, the bloated inventories are a big profit problem.
For shoppers, they mean generous discounts.
On Thursday, a string of retailers including Target Corp., J.C. Penney Co., Limited Brands and Nordstrom Inc. cut their earnings outlooks. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was almost alone in raising its third-quarter profit projection, but that wasn't because of robust sales. It was because of expense-cutting.
"The question becomes who has too much inventory," said John Morris, managing director of Wachovia Securities, "And how does that impact holiday sales?"
The inventory problem, he said, has forced some retailers are to try to cut holiday orders. It may be too late. "The discounting is starting to spread," he said.
Morris estimates that discounting was up 5 percent in September compared with a year ago at the apparel chains he tracks....
the stores' sales reports also showed that consumers continue to be weighed down by higher energy prices, a slumping housing market and tightening credit.
"There is this growing anxiety out there," said Frank Badillo, vice president and senior retail economist at Retail Forward, a retail consulting company. "And it's not just focused on the low-income households. I think you are starting to see it creep into the upmarket households."....
The ICSC-UBS (International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS) tally of retail sales rose a slim 1.7 percent in September, compared to 4.0 percent in the year-ago period and a forecast for a 2.5 percent gain.
The sales tally is based on same-store sales, or business at stores open at least a year, considered a key barometer of a retailer's health....." The International Council of Shopping Center survey showed a 1.7% increase, less than half the 4.0% increase from the year-ago period. The 1.7% increase was also well below the 2.5% increase predicted. Retail Sales are declining, as evidenced by this study. Further evidence of slowdown comes from comparison of the Census Bureau's September 2006 and 2007 reports. (shown in previous post.) Year-to-date sales are only 2.9% above the previous year's sales, while the previous September's year-to-date sales were up 6.7%. Retail Sales have increased less than 1/2 that of the previous year.
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 13, 2007 17:19:17 GMT -6
My wife just told me this afternoon that the sales by stores at the mall are bringing out huge volumes of shoppers. The cars were backed up on the 605 freeway trying to exit at South Street in both directions, trying to access the Cerritos Mall.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 13, 2007 17:38:30 GMT -6
My wife and I are going to JC Penney's later this weekend. They've announced price reductions of 30-70%.
Can anyone say "fire sale"?
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 13, 2007 17:50:45 GMT -6
I can smell the smoke coming off red hot credit cards.
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