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Post by jeffolie on May 8, 2009 10:35:23 GMT -6
Silver keeps on testing the current ceiling of $14. This is the third shot at breaking through and then breaking out above $14 on the 500 day chart.
Silver looks ready to breakout above $14. The next major resistance is just under $20 over the next few months.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 8, 2009 11:28:58 GMT -6
It certainly is looking good for silver. (as of May 8, 2008) As of July 7, 2008, it's not looking quite as good. (Note: the chart below is live.) www.marketwatch.com/charts/int-adv.chart?symb=DJIA&sid=1643&time=4&startdate=&enddate=&freq=1&comp=GLD%2CSLVC SLV&compidx=aaaaa~0&uf=0&ma=0&maval=50&type=8&size=2&lf=0&lf2=0&lf3=0&style=1013&mocktick=1&rand=637870430.png[/img] It's up 13% in the last month alone--far more than gold's 3% rise. However, silver is still a little too volatile for my tastes. But I suspect it will continue rising for quite sometime, and at a much faster rate than gold. And, to my knowledge, there's never been a government confiscation of silver--unlike the gold confiscation in the 1930's.
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Post by jeffolie on May 8, 2009 17:21:55 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on May 10, 2009 10:59:54 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on May 12, 2009 9:06:04 GMT -6
For hours today, silver is above $14.00.
And silver closed at about $14.25 which confirmed the breakout.
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Post by jeffolie on May 12, 2009 11:29:32 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on May 19, 2009 12:59:32 GMT -6
Silver dipped below $14.00 since I started this thread.
Silver is back at $14.25 as I post this on Tuesday a week later.
I expect Silver to go to about $18.50 over the next month or two.
The Dollar is weakening again and helping the precious metals again.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 20, 2009 21:15:29 GMT -6
Gold is now over $940/oz.
It was an interesting day, between a falling demand for dollars (and comparative increase in demand for silver & gold), but with an increase in demand for $-denominated US Treasuries. The latter is assumed to be the result of the Fed's announcement that it would buy more Treasuries, thus increasing total demand for Treasuries.
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Post by jeffolie on May 21, 2009 10:40:54 GMT -6
The Fed announced its intention to consider expanding its $300B program to buy Treasuries. Rates remain relatively suppressed but the Dollar is declining.
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Post by jeffolie on May 28, 2009 9:47:12 GMT -6
As I post this the breakout has continued and silver is at $15.20.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 31, 2009 14:59:10 GMT -6
As of this writing, Silver is up over 20% in the last month alone, while Gold is up 6%.
The Fed is having progressively more trouble trying to suppress the 10-year yield, which will predictably increase the price of gold and silver.
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 11, 2009 10:23:12 GMT -6
The spot price for Silver is $15.48 and the last week and a half has seen Silver hold on to its break out above $14.00.
I am still looking for this leg to carry silver to $18.50.
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 27, 2009 11:02:12 GMT -6
It has been more than a month since the May breakout over $14.00 and last week silver collapsed below $14.00 but ended slightly above the $14.00 breakout point on Friday June 26th.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 7, 2009 9:53:21 GMT -6
The price of silver dived. $14.00 did not hold. The breakout lasted a while (since early May) and when will the next breakout happen? I do not know when.
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Post by agito on Jul 8, 2009 1:47:41 GMT -6
why do you think it dropped?
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 8, 2009 2:37:57 GMT -6
why do you think it dropped? I think money is being pulled out of the market in every arena. Gold, Silver, and Treasuries are all down. The Dow lost big time today and is on a monthly downtrend. I think investors are sitting on their money, rather than putting it into anything. But this will probably change before the end of the week, as the market's unjustified and false optimism will probably return. After all, we "only" lost -467K jobs last month. We just must be on the road to recovery.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 31, 2009 11:22:17 GMT -6
Silver is up almost +4% today. Gold is up about 2%. The Dow is pretty much flat, as is the BKX commercial bank index. The biggest up-shoots with Gold & Silver occurred around 11 AM Eastern Time (GDP results were released at 8:30 AM and the Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM, so these up-shoots don't appear directly related to the release of either report.) finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=%5EBKX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=GLD%2CSLV&c=%5EDJI
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 4, 2009 8:55:21 GMT -6
Silver is making yet another breakout over the $14.00 level.
I still expect a run at $18.50.
The prior run got to about $16.
There is plenty of sympathic commodities such as oil and gold making new runs from depressed levels.
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 13, 2009 10:04:46 GMT -6
The second try at the breakout above $14.00 is well in place as prices are touching $15.00 as I write this.
There appears to have been a low almost a year ago at about $9. The uptrend has been strong with modest pull backs since then.
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 22, 2009 10:23:10 GMT -6
The second silver breakout withered and then rebounded barely above $14.00. The recovery uptrend is still in place when you look at a 500 day chart of silver from its recent lows of about $9.00 in September of 2008.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 22, 2009 11:19:23 GMT -6
Just wait until some of the trillions of $$ that banks have been given hits the streets. It may not happen for quite some time, but eventually it will happen. And the Fed will not be able to soak up all the excess dollars when it does.
I don't think precious metal prices will change much, as long as banks continue holding on to the funds recently expropriated from taxpayers by the Fed & the Treasury.
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 28, 2009 9:40:11 GMT -6
The renewed breakout is still in place this week above the $14.00 line. The next minor high may well be above $16.00 on its eventual try for $18.50 by the end of the year in the seasonality of Christmas which from a weak consumer point of view may favor the lower priced silver over the higher priced gold.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 4, 2009 9:48:46 GMT -6
Silver did indeed reach the next minor high above the $16.00 level.
$17.00 is the next likely high over the next couple of weeks.
$18.50 still looks doable by the end of the year.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Sept 4, 2009 20:23:18 GMT -6
Silver's up 10% this week, with gold up 5%. The increase in silver's price somewhat refutes that the cause of the gold spike being due to China's recent actions. This looks like more of a generalized rise in the more non-industrial precious metals (gold & silver, as opposed to platinum & palladium.) Below is a 5 day chart comparing silver & gold prices to the DJI and the Commercial Bank Index (^BKX).
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 5, 2009 6:10:42 GMT -6
If the Dollar index breaks below 77, then it probably will retest 70. This should send precious metals up a proportionate 10% from here.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 11, 2009 16:59:19 GMT -6
Silver almost reached $17.00 today but fell back. As I posted, $17.00 is the next minor high. I expect resistance and many attempts to reach $17.00 with many pullbacks. Fueling this strength in precious metals is the weakening Dollar which broke below recent support of 77.00. The Dollar could easily drop 10% to about its prior lows of 70. If so, Dollar weakness would push up Silver to my expected high of $18.50 sometime this year.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 15, 2009 14:49:31 GMT -6
As I write this Silver is trading in the after hours in London at $17.01.
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Post by fredorbob on Sept 17, 2009 11:40:19 GMT -6
I warn against purchasing a "certificate" from the government which says you own gold or silver or some other attempt to escape inflation.
You do realize socialists have a supermajority in both houses, control the presidency and the courts. If it is perceived that a bunch of rich people escaped inflation while the rest of the peasants had to suffer then the socialists might slap a tax on any attempt to buy or sell those inflation-escaping things like gold and silver.
Additionally barely anyone alive today knows how to actually trade gold and silver, you might have a hard time trying to barter a bunch of gold/silver yourself with a populace that doesn't understand basic physical/mathematical principles behind metalurgy of precious metals. If you hand someone a yellow coin, or some yellow sand they'd think you were trying to gyp them and take you to court.
I suggest buying inflation escaping consumables like ATF (alcohol, tobacco and firearms). I think those things actually increase in value in the last depression.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 17, 2009 19:03:24 GMT -6
I hold mostly silver coins and some gold coins. Everything I hold, I have in physical. If the Abysis happens as I expect in 2012-13, then silver coins will be the easiest to deal with.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 25, 2009 8:29:08 GMT -6
I predicted above that the $17 would create a minor top.
Now that silver is correcting downward from the $17 area, I believe I could retest the $15 area, but it may not decline that much.
I still expect a run to the $18.50 area by year's end.
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