Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 31, 2007 21:02:57 GMT -6
Today's Construction Spending report was another masterpiece in creativity and statistical manipulation. The reported +0.3% Construction Spending for September was concocted by downwardly revising both August and July's numbers. Today's annualized $1,162.780 billion is -$3.9 billion below August's initially reported $1,166.667 billion, a decline of -0.33%.
However, this is not how it was reported today. Instead, September's Construction Spending was reported to have increased +0.3%.
How was this accomplished? By reducing August's $1,166.667 by -$7.486 billion, down to only 1,159.181 billion. Thus, August's total was reduced by -6.4%. This turned what should have been a -0.33% decline into a +$0.33% gain.
But the downward revisions did not stop with August. July's previously published $1,164.430 billion Construction Spending (as reported in the August report) was reduced -$3.320 billion, leaving it at only $1,161.110 billion. This was reduction of -0.28%.
And this was not the first downward revision of July's number. July's Construction Spending had been initially reported as $1,169.074 billion. Thus, for the month of July, today's $1.161.110 is a -$7.964 billion reduction in the originally published number. Thus, over the last 2 months, July's total has been revised downward -0.68%.
The type of downward revisions occurred for May as well. As of June 2007, May's annualized Construction Spending was reported as $1,178.436 billion. As of today, May's total had been downwardly revised by -$6.3 billion.
The most interesting revision, however, is the between today's reported total for September 2006, and last September's report for the same month. September 2006's Construction Spending is currently stated as $1,172.131 billion. This is -$23.796 billion less than the originally reported $1,195.927 billion in Sept 06. (This is shown near the top on the right in the chart below--shadowed in red.)
This -$23.796 billion reduction changes the September to September decline. Using the original number, the decline would have been -2.8%, instead of the today's concoction of only -0.8%. This manipulation adds about +0.17% to our GDP.
These manipulations are 100% documentable, and can be seen in the respective Construction Spending reports for each month.
Below is a composite of multiple Construction Spending reports from the Census Bureaus, showing the corresponding information information for 5 separate release dates, in descending order: 10/31/07, 9/28/07, 9/4/07, 7/31/07, and 11/1/06. The links to the specific releases are shown in red under the release date. The numbers shown for each release date are Total Construction Spending (on top) and Residential Construction Spending (underneath "Total").
To help demonstrate the downward revisions, I've posted a composite chart from Briefing.com's Construction Spending report, showing the change between the Predicted/Previous report from yesterday and today's "Current" report. Yesterday's numbers are superimposed on today's report and are shade in pink, while today's are in blue.
It's no mystery why the government and Corporate propagandists claim we won't enter a recession. If the current numbers don't show "growth", they'll just rewrite history and lower previous numbers, changing actually monthly declines in to gains. Today's Construction Spending of $1,162.780 billion is not more than a $1,166.667 billion for August. But it is more than the "revised" $1,159.181 billion for August published today.
Any economic growth is based on propaganda and statistical manipulation. The manipulation of numbers to create a phony gain, as seen with Construction Spending, is the rule--not the exception.
However, this is not how it was reported today. Instead, September's Construction Spending was reported to have increased +0.3%.
How was this accomplished? By reducing August's $1,166.667 by -$7.486 billion, down to only 1,159.181 billion. Thus, August's total was reduced by -6.4%. This turned what should have been a -0.33% decline into a +$0.33% gain.
But the downward revisions did not stop with August. July's previously published $1,164.430 billion Construction Spending (as reported in the August report) was reduced -$3.320 billion, leaving it at only $1,161.110 billion. This was reduction of -0.28%.
And this was not the first downward revision of July's number. July's Construction Spending had been initially reported as $1,169.074 billion. Thus, for the month of July, today's $1.161.110 is a -$7.964 billion reduction in the originally published number. Thus, over the last 2 months, July's total has been revised downward -0.68%.
The type of downward revisions occurred for May as well. As of June 2007, May's annualized Construction Spending was reported as $1,178.436 billion. As of today, May's total had been downwardly revised by -$6.3 billion.
The most interesting revision, however, is the between today's reported total for September 2006, and last September's report for the same month. September 2006's Construction Spending is currently stated as $1,172.131 billion. This is -$23.796 billion less than the originally reported $1,195.927 billion in Sept 06. (This is shown near the top on the right in the chart below--shadowed in red.)
This -$23.796 billion reduction changes the September to September decline. Using the original number, the decline would have been -2.8%, instead of the today's concoction of only -0.8%. This manipulation adds about +0.17% to our GDP.
These manipulations are 100% documentable, and can be seen in the respective Construction Spending reports for each month.
Below is a composite of multiple Construction Spending reports from the Census Bureaus, showing the corresponding information information for 5 separate release dates, in descending order: 10/31/07, 9/28/07, 9/4/07, 7/31/07, and 11/1/06. The links to the specific releases are shown in red under the release date. The numbers shown for each release date are Total Construction Spending (on top) and Residential Construction Spending (underneath "Total").
To help demonstrate the downward revisions, I've posted a composite chart from Briefing.com's Construction Spending report, showing the change between the Predicted/Previous report from yesterday and today's "Current" report. Yesterday's numbers are superimposed on today's report and are shade in pink, while today's are in blue.
It's no mystery why the government and Corporate propagandists claim we won't enter a recession. If the current numbers don't show "growth", they'll just rewrite history and lower previous numbers, changing actually monthly declines in to gains. Today's Construction Spending of $1,162.780 billion is not more than a $1,166.667 billion for August. But it is more than the "revised" $1,159.181 billion for August published today.
Any economic growth is based on propaganda and statistical manipulation. The manipulation of numbers to create a phony gain, as seen with Construction Spending, is the rule--not the exception.