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Post by pothead on Oct 14, 2009 20:15:36 GMT -6
80 million baby bomers are set to retire with thousands of them leaving the stock market every week.
You better get out, while you have something.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 15, 2009 2:49:34 GMT -6
80 million baby boomers are set to retire with thousands of them leaving the stock market every week. You better get out, while you have something. Amen. The current rally is completely unsustainable. Price-to-earnings ratios are at record highs, since earnings have been so poor. And earnings will become even worse, as American employment falls, and spendable consumer income falls along with it.
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 15, 2009 8:37:42 GMT -6
The stock market has reach my expected mark of 10000.
Much of the improved earnings have come at the expense of workers. Salaries have been cut, jobs have been cut, jobs have been shipped overseas to cheaper labor. Multinational corporations have boosted earnings this way but can not repeat the same tricks. The increased bottom line results are real but not a growing prospect for repeating year after year. Next year's bottom line will not show a gain over this year's bottom line from these same tricks that can not happen twice.
That leaves sales at the same level or worse for next year.
Where will the stock market go from here: higher.
Why?
Seasonality is the reason. Historically, September and October have been low points and the market rises for the next six months into a season high in May. Hence the cliche: sell in May and go away.
10000 will provide resistence and a temporary difficulty for the market. The market will repeatedly retrace, make a new attempt to overshoot 10000, then pull back. This is called overheaded resistence. The same thing happened to gold and the 1000 mark which eventually got taken out to the upside.
Classic Quotes: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent by John Maynard Keynes.
jeffolie predicts a higher stock market into the rough timeframe of May 2010.
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Post by waltc on Oct 15, 2009 13:34:18 GMT -6
First thing to understand that the stock market is not tied to the real economy or reality at all anymore.
Look there is no fundamental reason why the stock market should have rallied the way it did, considering the massive job loss and real-estate implosion that wiped out untold amounts of disposable spending. All that is keeping it afloat is the Fed and the big financial houses(whose trading constitute the bulk of trading activity at the NYSE).
BTW the bulk of trades is limited to less than a half-a-dozen stocks. Which also tells anyone that this market has no real substance behind it.
It smells of a pump and dump scheme like the Dot.Com bubble was.
Play in this market and you will get burned.
For those who didn't exit the market in '08, now is probably a great time since a lot of the stocks have recovered their losses.
Take the money and run, especially if you are in a 401k or IRA.
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 15, 2009 14:40:04 GMT -6
I agree that the stock market rally has had the weakest of reasons to rallying: increasing the bottom line through job cuts, salary reductions and sending jobs overseas.
Timing the stock market is very hard to do. I believe that their are very modest gains left in this weak hands rally. Anyone who has gains should be protecting those gains with protective stop losses or gradually selling into new highs.
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Post by agito on Oct 16, 2009 1:29:16 GMT -6
that 80 million figure is a little too high. But yeah- i'm wondering the same thing, when the baby boomers cash out the market is going to flatline.
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Post by waltc on Oct 18, 2009 17:33:29 GMT -6
The thing is I don't think anyone knows how long this rally will last. Personally I think the bears are wrong and it will go on as long as Uncle Sugar can keep the big banks and investment houses from croaking or a run on the banks.
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Post by pothead on Oct 18, 2009 20:37:04 GMT -6
that 80 million figure is a little too high. But yeah- i'm wondering the same thing, when the baby boomers cash out the market is going to flatline. according to MetLife In 2003 there were about 78,000,000 boomers. And they made up 27.5% of the US population at the time.
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Post by agito on Oct 20, 2009 0:28:21 GMT -6
thanks for providing a source on that pothead
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Post by xtra on Oct 31, 2009 17:13:46 GMT -6
I saw in the Denver Post the other day that by 2014 there will be 85+ million baby boomers ready to retire.
I guess the bottom line is that there will be a very large percentage, maybe 25% getting out of the market, if they havent already started too and with fewer jobs with 401k etc. not being there to replace these retirees I see big big trouble in little china.
Get the hell out, while you still can.
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Post by agito on Nov 5, 2009 0:55:44 GMT -6
on the flip side of that- is anyone doing any research on what the average age of first entry into the market is? I'd bet it's going up faster than the rate at which the average age of cash out is
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Post by nomad943 on Nov 13, 2009 5:58:43 GMT -6
If the Dow Jones went up half as fast as the dollar its stocks are priced in goes down, people would be raving. Instead the dollar plummets and the Dow plods along on a flat line. Something you dont hear pointed out very much.
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