Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 16, 2008 18:35:57 GMT -6
4th Quarter Industrial Production Delcines -1.4%
Though today's reported Industrial Production1 was "unchanged" over the previous month, Industrial Production fell -$19 billion, or -0.6% for the 4th quarter. However, even these numbers understate the loss, since these numbers were calculated after the downward manipulation of 3rd quarter Industrial Production. Previously published 3rd quarter Industrial Production2 was reported at +$2.4 billion more than it is currently listed, which would make the 4th quarter decline -$21.4 billion, or -0.676%. Carried over 4 quarters, this would be a decline of -$85.6 billion, or -2.7%.
(Downward revisions of previous numbers are just one of many manipulations that will be used to lower 3rd quarter GDP, thus making 4th quarter GDP look less bad.)
Today's manipulation can be seen from the Industrial Production Index for September (As opposed to the actual $$ amounts, which already have the September manipulation baked into the numbers).
September's Industrial Production Index was originally published as 114.4. But with today's report, it was downwardly revised to 114.2. With a December index of 114.0, this reduces the September 07 to December 07 decline by 1/2—from -0.4 down to -0.2.
Using the original September Index number and the current number for December, results in an annualized index decline for the 4th quarter of -1.6.
(-0.4 x 4 quarters = -1.6)
This gives an annualized 4th quarter percentage decline of -1.4%
(-1.6 ÷ 114.4 = -0.014, or -1.4% ).
Even using the Federal Reserve's manipulated numbers, it is clear from the $$ amounts that Industrial Production declined for the 4th quarter—falling from a 3rd quarter $3,111 billion down to $3,092 billion. Below is a modified chart from the Federal Reserve, showing the changes in both $$ (top half) and Index value (bottom half).
Below are some links to the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production report. The most useful, and easiest to understand are the text links to Table 9, which gives the $ value of Industrial Production.
Current Release in pdf format:
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.pdf
1. Currrent release—Table 9
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/table9.txt
2. Novermber 16, 2007 release (for October)
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20071116/table9.txt
Current Industrial Production report in pdf format:
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.pdf
Though today's reported Industrial Production1 was "unchanged" over the previous month, Industrial Production fell -$19 billion, or -0.6% for the 4th quarter. However, even these numbers understate the loss, since these numbers were calculated after the downward manipulation of 3rd quarter Industrial Production. Previously published 3rd quarter Industrial Production2 was reported at +$2.4 billion more than it is currently listed, which would make the 4th quarter decline -$21.4 billion, or -0.676%. Carried over 4 quarters, this would be a decline of -$85.6 billion, or -2.7%.
(Downward revisions of previous numbers are just one of many manipulations that will be used to lower 3rd quarter GDP, thus making 4th quarter GDP look less bad.)
Today's manipulation can be seen from the Industrial Production Index for September (As opposed to the actual $$ amounts, which already have the September manipulation baked into the numbers).
September's Industrial Production Index was originally published as 114.4. But with today's report, it was downwardly revised to 114.2. With a December index of 114.0, this reduces the September 07 to December 07 decline by 1/2—from -0.4 down to -0.2.
Using the original September Index number and the current number for December, results in an annualized index decline for the 4th quarter of -1.6.
(-0.4 x 4 quarters = -1.6)
This gives an annualized 4th quarter percentage decline of -1.4%
(-1.6 ÷ 114.4 = -0.014, or -1.4% ).
Even using the Federal Reserve's manipulated numbers, it is clear from the $$ amounts that Industrial Production declined for the 4th quarter—falling from a 3rd quarter $3,111 billion down to $3,092 billion. Below is a modified chart from the Federal Reserve, showing the changes in both $$ (top half) and Index value (bottom half).
Below are some links to the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production report. The most useful, and easiest to understand are the text links to Table 9, which gives the $ value of Industrial Production.
Current Release in pdf format:
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.pdf
1. Currrent release—Table 9
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/table9.txt
2. Novermber 16, 2007 release (for October)
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20071116/table9.txt
Current Industrial Production report in pdf format:
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.pdf