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72%
Mar 1, 2008 10:45:31 GMT -6
Post by proletariat on Mar 1, 2008 10:45:31 GMT -6
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72%
Mar 1, 2008 12:38:00 GMT -6
Post by judes on Mar 1, 2008 12:38:00 GMT -6
That was a good article. I liked what they had to say in the last paragraph. Indeed we do need a paradigm shift, ending the crazy notion once and for all that free trader zealots have been pounding into peoples heads, that one sided free trade deals are good for us. They are not, as can be seen by the unfolding economic crisis we are witnessing, ending trade deficits would be a helpful approach indeed.
So, even if the Fed and US Treasury now manage to stave off recession, what will fuel future growth? With debt burdens elevated and housing prices significantly above levels warranted by their historical relation to income, the business cycle of the last two decades appears exhausted.
It is not enough to deal only with the crisis of the day. Policy must also chart a stable long-term course, which implies the need to reconsider the paradigm of the past 25 years. That means ending trade deficits that drain spending and jobs, and restoring the link between wages and productivity. That way, wage income, not debt and asset price inflation, can again provide the engine of demand growth.
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72%
Mar 1, 2008 15:16:10 GMT -6
Post by graybeard on Mar 1, 2008 15:16:10 GMT -6
Did I miss something in that article? What's the other 28%?
GB
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72%
Mar 1, 2008 19:02:59 GMT -6
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 1, 2008 19:02:59 GMT -6
Did I miss something in that article? What's the other 28%? GB That's a great question. The other 3 components are Capital Investment, Trade balance, and Government spending. Capital investment makes up a smaller portion than it did a year ago. (Though the BEA's inflation-concoctions have tried to reduce the calculated measurement of the decline.) The trade balance actually worsened in terms of current dollars. Again, however, the BEA concocted a real-dollar reduction in the annual change, by factoring in import price deflation. (Yes, really. They actually did that.) Government spending, however, accounts for the lion's share of that 28% not due to Consumer Spending. About $2.7 trillion of our $13.8 trillion GDP, or roughly 20%, is the result of Government spending. (Maybe more, if the off-the-books Iraq war spending has been omitted.) According to the GDP report (table 3) , 2007 Federal Spending totaled $976 billion. Of that $916 billion, $660 billion was for National Defense, while $316 billion was for non-Defense spending. State and local government expenditures are listed at $1.7 trillion. (Note: These numbers do NOT jibe with the Treasury Dept. numbers. Though the Treasury Dept's 2007 fiscal year ended in September, it's still hard to understand why there is so much difference in their numbers. The only logical explanation would be that much of what the Treasury Dept has labeled as "U.S. Government Outlays," is classified as "State & Local " government outlays by the BEA.
The Treasury Dept. (page 30) shows a "National Defense" outlay of $560 billion at the end of fiscal year 2007. (i.e., for the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2007.) In contrast, the BEA shows an "National Defense" expenditure of $673 billion at the end of the same period (end of 3rd quarter 2007). Maybe the $113 billion difference came from putting $113 billion "off-book" Iraq war spending back on the books. Or maybe someone just can't count.
To use the BEA's numbers, only $316 billion of Federal government spending was on non-Defense expenditures. This is hard to believe, given that Medicare itself costs over $400 billion annually, and Social Security outlays are over $500 billion annually.)In summary: Consumer Spending is 70% of current-dollar GDP, & ~72% of real-dollar GDP. , Private Investment is 15.3% of current-dollar GDP, & ~15.6% of real-dollar GDP Government Spending is 20% of current-dollar GDP, & 17.2% of real-dollar GDP. Trade Balance subtracts -5% from curr-dollar GDP, & -4.8% from real-dollar GDP.
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72%
Mar 2, 2008 18:17:35 GMT -6
Post by dc on Mar 2, 2008 18:17:35 GMT -6
Don't you just love that: off the books Iraq war spending. Talk about Bush's crooked accounting in plain sight. Repeat the lie long enough, commit the crime long enough, and the sheeple will accept it. Lying, war profiteering, no bid contracts, cronyism, torture, police state tactics, you name it; and the American people act like sheeple. They continue to accept the criminals in the White House; or they rally around the next corporate demagogue that wonts to be president. It seems like are only hope is to hold the feet of Congress to the fire.
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