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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 3, 2008 4:07:03 GMT -6
Real Consumer Spending growth was 0.0% for the 2nd straight month. Given that Consumer Spending is 70-75% of our economy, this puts a huge dent in GDP growth. The average monthly growth in real Consumer Spending has been +0.1% over the last 12 months, which would make the annualized growth rate of real Consumer Spending +1.2% over the last 12 months. Real Gross Private Investment was down -$57 billion from 4th quarter 2006. The later would be a -0.5% subtraction from our real GDP of $11.67 trillion. Taking the +1.2% increase in real Consumer Spending x 0.7% gives +0.84%. If investment & consumer spending are combined, that leaves a total increase of +0.34%. Given that Consumer Spending is 72% of our economy, and Private Investment is about 15% of our economy, the combined total are about 87%. So that contribution from those 2 components of GDP alone would increase GDP by +0.34%. The Trade Deficit addition is a peculiar case. The current dollar value of our trade deficit worsened. That should lead to a negative contribution from our trade deficit as well. However, the Trade Balance was conveniently adjusted for inflation, resulting in a significant improvement in our "real" dollar trade deficit. www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2008/pdf/pi0108_fax.pdf
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Post by beachbumbob on Mar 3, 2008 7:40:14 GMT -6
recession? what recession???
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