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Post by jeffolie on Jul 13, 2010 10:02:21 GMT -6
Most goldbugs will tell you that generally the public is not buying gold and there is not an investment 'mania'. Historically investment manias end when the public is buying and the public is speculating. The stock market (1982 to 2000) and housing (1997 to 2007) are perfect examples of investment manias.
Metals have entered this mania process starting by a breakout from 2002. Investment manias take lots of time to end in the public peak investment phase such as house flippers and QQQQ options buyers. Gold's investment mania may well take 18 years just like stocks and housing or it could take just 3 years. The key is too watch for the publics peak investment phase when the public/office conversation includes how MANY are making more on their gold investments than their salaries.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 13, 2010 10:11:28 GMT -6
Silver will be a significant investment vehicle for the public during the public's peak investment phase.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 13, 2010 10:30:25 GMT -6
Here's the longer term chart for what its worth. www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_crisis_with_gold.png I noticed that the breakout for gold was in 1972 and the peak was 8 years later in 1980. I am not saying that 8 years is important for investing but the peak was fast in the final phase. And I remember the top lasted for a very, very short time frame.
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Post by fredorbob on Jul 14, 2010 2:52:06 GMT -6
If you're trying to survive Economic Doomesday by buying gold; if you own a piece of paper stating you own gold instead of physically owning the gold then you own nothing.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 14, 2010 10:35:58 GMT -6
Yes, paper gold/silver are questionable. I hold, possess my metals. But, there are risks and costs with holding your metals that should not be ignored.
As to economic doomsday, I am guessing that the 'Dollar' will still exist but just not buy very much. But, why take the chance? Just being known as having gold may well make one a target of crime and the government. Who knows, this is mere guesswork. When the British Pound lost its Reserve Currency status and a significant amount of purchasing power, there was not social choas nor the end of the Pound.
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