Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 19, 2007 15:16:32 GMT -6
May's Housing Starts declined to 1.474 million, 3.5% less than April's originally published 1.528 million. (The Census Bureau downwardly revised April's previous 1.528 million starts to 1.506 million to make May's decline look smaller.) May 2007's 1.474 million starts was also -24% less than May 2006's total of 1.901 million starts. Below is graph from Briefing.com showing the long-term trend in Housing Starts.
Below is a another graph from Briefing.com showing the change over just the last 18 months.
Also of interest is the comparison between New Home Completions and New Home Sales. Since May's New Home Sales are not available yet, a comparison of the 2 numbers for April is shown below. (This chart below is a combination of 2 reports from the Census Bureau: the New Home Sales report (Table 1) and the New Home Construction report (Table 5) )
Annualized New Home Completions for April were 1.542 million, while New Home Sales were only 0.981 million. This is a surplus of New Homes of 561,000 annualized. (The 538,000 number shown in the table above is incorrect for uncertain reasons.)
With the continuing surplus in New Homes Completed, combined with the rapidly increasing number of foreclosures, there is nowhere for the surplus of homes for sale to go but up. And due to this continual increase in "supply" of homes, there is nowhere for prices to go but down.
In addition, with a -24% decline in Housing Starts, residential construction employment must be declining. The minuscule declines in construction employment published by the government are extremely understated.
The Housing Crash has not "bottomed out." In fact, it is nowhere near the bottom yet.
Below is a another graph from Briefing.com showing the change over just the last 18 months.
Also of interest is the comparison between New Home Completions and New Home Sales. Since May's New Home Sales are not available yet, a comparison of the 2 numbers for April is shown below. (This chart below is a combination of 2 reports from the Census Bureau: the New Home Sales report (Table 1) and the New Home Construction report (Table 5) )
Annualized New Home Completions for April were 1.542 million, while New Home Sales were only 0.981 million. This is a surplus of New Homes of 561,000 annualized. (The 538,000 number shown in the table above is incorrect for uncertain reasons.)
With the continuing surplus in New Homes Completed, combined with the rapidly increasing number of foreclosures, there is nowhere for the surplus of homes for sale to go but up. And due to this continual increase in "supply" of homes, there is nowhere for prices to go but down.
In addition, with a -24% decline in Housing Starts, residential construction employment must be declining. The minuscule declines in construction employment published by the government are extremely understated.
The Housing Crash has not "bottomed out." In fact, it is nowhere near the bottom yet.