Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 27, 2007 15:25:05 GMT -6
A good, general assessment of the housing market and the economy can be found at the Financial Sense web site in an article titled Signs of a Gathering Storm by FRANK BARBERA, CMT
"It has not been a good week by any measure. In today’s economic news, AP reports that the Case-Shiller Index of US Home Prices fell for the 17th month in a row with all regions reflecting a widespread slowdown in housing. The Index, which covers 10 major US cities, fell 2.7% from a year ago, its steepest decline in 16 years going back to 1991, the last Housing Bear. “No region is immune to the weakening price returns” said Robert Shiller, Chief Economist of MacroMarkets in an interview with AP. In addition, S&P noted that its 20-City Index showed a 2.1% drop in the price of existing single family homes across the US in April, with 14 out of 20 cities showing either flat or lower prices. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that sales of new single-family homes dropped for the fourth time in five months, falling by 1.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 units. The Housing Recession is now well under-way, and for all appearance shows no end in sight.
Elsewhere, Consumer Confidence fell nearly 5 points to 103.90, down from 108.50 according to the Conference Board. At the same time, the Present Situation Index fell to 127.90 in May from 136.10 in April, while the forward looking Expectations Index fell from 90.10 to 87.90 in May. Easily overlooked, most readers probably won’t extract much of a message in today’s Consumer Confidence report. Yet in our view, we note that tucked away in all the rapid-fire headline data is a far more ominous development, a warning of potential recession on the way. In our work, we have always focused on the Ratio of Consumer Expectations to the Present Situation, and over the last few months, even though the Present Situation Index has ‘held up’ well, forward looking Expectations have been deteriorating and showing no rebound capability. This action in the past has spelled R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N...."
The full article can be found at
Signs of a Gathering Storm
"It has not been a good week by any measure. In today’s economic news, AP reports that the Case-Shiller Index of US Home Prices fell for the 17th month in a row with all regions reflecting a widespread slowdown in housing. The Index, which covers 10 major US cities, fell 2.7% from a year ago, its steepest decline in 16 years going back to 1991, the last Housing Bear. “No region is immune to the weakening price returns” said Robert Shiller, Chief Economist of MacroMarkets in an interview with AP. In addition, S&P noted that its 20-City Index showed a 2.1% drop in the price of existing single family homes across the US in April, with 14 out of 20 cities showing either flat or lower prices. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that sales of new single-family homes dropped for the fourth time in five months, falling by 1.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 units. The Housing Recession is now well under-way, and for all appearance shows no end in sight.
Elsewhere, Consumer Confidence fell nearly 5 points to 103.90, down from 108.50 according to the Conference Board. At the same time, the Present Situation Index fell to 127.90 in May from 136.10 in April, while the forward looking Expectations Index fell from 90.10 to 87.90 in May. Easily overlooked, most readers probably won’t extract much of a message in today’s Consumer Confidence report. Yet in our view, we note that tucked away in all the rapid-fire headline data is a far more ominous development, a warning of potential recession on the way. In our work, we have always focused on the Ratio of Consumer Expectations to the Present Situation, and over the last few months, even though the Present Situation Index has ‘held up’ well, forward looking Expectations have been deteriorating and showing no rebound capability. This action in the past has spelled R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N...."
The full article can be found at
Signs of a Gathering Storm