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Post by jeffolie on Aug 10, 2011 9:42:33 GMT -6
10yr T-note 2.15% -0.09
The rush into Treasuries continues resulting in declining interest rates.
This would have created an overwhelming benefit to homeowners that refinance, but often their home price has collapsed below their mortgage balance resulting in the lender refusing to refinance or adjust their mortgage rates. For some, refinancing will be available. One approach still available to those with signficant piles of cash ( earning near nothing in savings ) is to 'buy down' or bring money to the table by paying down the mortgage to a balance low enough to result in a lender agreeing to refinance.
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BTW, I did post that rates would fall:
Sat Aug 06, 2011
"...Interest rates will fall, decline Monday ... downgrade flight to safety as stocks fall into Treasuries Monday
"...Contrary to stories and fears published today, I expect short term Treasuries yields to fall as stock and long term bond holders run into the safety of short term Treasuries. Most stories today look to see Treasury bond yields increase Monday, rise on the order of magnitude of .7% ... these story writers are going to be surprised and caught flat footed, wrong.
"...Some funds, financial institutions will be forced to sell Treasuries now that the downgrade creates the situation where they must own only AAA paper. These sales will be overwhelmed by the flight to safety of Treasuries from stocks, etc. in my opinion, sufficiently to make Friday's closing Treasuries yields decline Monday.
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 11, 2011 12:05:40 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 11, 2011 15:28:12 GMT -6
"... If your home value has fallen, you might need to pay down your principal in addition to whatever closing costs you’ve agreed to pay, in order to get the best rates. According to Freddie Mac, 26% of people who refinanced in the second quarter of 2011 brought cash to the closing table. Read more: A cash-in refinance can cut mortgage costs. “The whole concept of cash-in refi isn’t unheard of,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a publisher of consumer loan information. Gumbinger also writes a mortgage newsletter at HSH.com . But “you’re taking money out of savings and plunking it into an equity situation,” he added. And with falling home prices, there’s “the fear of ‘I’m going to put 10 grand in and it could be gone tomorrow.’” Others simply aren’t able to pay down principal for a refi. “We’ve got a generation of borrowers out there who have been paying on their mortgages… and carrying an above-market rate, but can’t refinance because the appraisal won’t allow them..." www.marketwatch.com/story/refinancing-window-reopens-for-some-2011-08-08
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 18, 2011 12:50:05 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 2, 2011 8:46:26 GMT -6
10yr T-note 1.99% (MarketWatch) — U.S. Treasury prices added to early Friday gains after the government reported that job growth was unchanged in August, the weakest performance for nonfarm payrolls in almost a year. The no change in payrolls was lower than the 53,000 increase expected by Wall Street economists, and down from 85,000 jobs added in July. www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-jump-following-disappointing-jobs-data-2011-09-02
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 8, 2011 10:23:23 GMT -6
Mortgage rates fall to lowest level since 1950s, few qualify WASHINGTON – Fixed mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest levels in six decades. But few Americans can take advantage of the rates to refinance or buy a home. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.12%, from 4.22%, Freddie Mac said Thursday. That's the lowest level on records dating back to 1971. Freddie Mac says the last time rates were cheaper was 1951, when most home loans lasted just 20 or 25 years. The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage, a popular refinancing option, fell to 3.33% from 3.39%. That's the lowest on records dating to 1991 and likely the lowest ever, according to economists. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which fell to an all-time low this week. An uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy has led many investors to shift money out of stocks and into the safety of Treasury securities, lowering the yield. When demand pushes up bond prices, yields fall. Still, few expect record-low rates to energize the depressed home market. .... www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2011-09-08/Mortgage-rates-fall-to-lowest-level-since-1950s-few-qualify/50319086/1
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 24, 2011 16:09:56 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Dec 16, 2011 11:00:39 GMT -6
unthinkable lows at less than 3% This morning on the radio while driving I heard 'Cash Call' offer a 2.99% 30 year fixed with no points if you had good credit. ========================== 10yr T-note 1.85% www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 17, 2012 9:41:38 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 30, 2012 13:26:42 GMT -6
Low Treasuries yields are an opportunity for refinancing or financing many kinds of debts that decline along with Treasuries such as 30 year mortgages, etc. Yet another drop in 10 year Treasuries to the low area seen in September 2011, December 2011 and now in January 2012. As I post ... 1.83% www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 30, 2012 19:32:36 GMT -6
I do NOT have a prediction for Treasury yields this year except for a seasonal variation in the trend. Safe haven buying of Treasuries most likely will continue until the European mess clarifies which seems possible or impossible depending on soo many human choices in the politics of emotional people. If the powers that be get a European continuing process of the status quo where the ECB, et al 'refinancing' continues as a kind of stealth shifting bank liabilities to the ECB, then rates will remain in their trend. If Greece or others implode politically the game is off with a new configuiration of what is the 'single currency's' group of European nations.
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 2, 2012 10:40:57 GMT -6
Rates for 30-year U.S. mortgages declined to the lowest level on record after the Obama administration announced measures to make it easier for homeowners to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan fell to 3.87 percent, the lowest in records dating to 1971, from 3.98 percent in the week ended today, Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.14 percent from 3.24 percent, according to the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage- finance company. President Barack Obama introduced a plan yesterday that he said would allow more borrowers to benefit from the low rates. Homeowners would be able to refinance into loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, even if their home debt is more than their properties are worth. High unemployment and weak consumer confidence are reducing the positive effects of low borrowing costs, said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas Research Partners LLC in New York. “They’re worried about having a job and worried about the home being underwater,” Rissmiller said in a telephone interview yesterday. “The employment question is really important here.” The U.S. unemployment rate will remain at 8.5 percent for January when the Labor Department issues the data on Friday, according to the average estimate of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Residential real estate prices fell more than forecast in November, showing distressed properties are continuing to hamper a recovery. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.7 percent from November 2010 after dropping 3.4 percent in the year ended in October, the group said Jan. 31. Economists projected a 3.3 percent decline, according to the median estimate in a survey. Home-loan applications decreased in the period ended Jan. 27, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday. The Washington-based group’s measure of purchase loans slipped 1.7 percent, while its refinancing gauge fell 3.6 percent. www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-02/mortgage-rates-for-30-year-u-s-loans-fall-to-record-low-3-87-.html
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Feb 2, 2012 12:37:02 GMT -6
Homeowners would be able to refinance into loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, even if their home debt is more than their properties are worth Just lovely. What this really means is that more homeowners will be able to refinance with loans guaranteed BY OTHER TAXPAYERS--especially those who do not own a home, and can't afford to buy one, due to these very same price-inflating policies of the Federal Government. The Federal Government is literally putting all taxpayers at greater risk, including that 43% who don't own homes, to save a few homeowners--and to save the financial institutions that hold their mortgages. This is absolutely wrong, and enough reason by itself to throw Obama out of office. Force banks to write down the value of their loans if you want to help homeowners. Don't force non-home-owning taxpayers to bail out those that do own homes.
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Post by jeffolie on May 3, 2012 10:16:48 GMT -6
my jeffolie prediction of in the area of 1% 10 Year Treasury notes when the Eurozone collapses would drive mortage rates still lower than the lasted record low. The window of lower rates in my opinion has much more to go from here. =================================== 10 Year Treasury Note = 1.92% www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year=============================== Freddie Mac: 30-year mortgage hits record low of 3.84% Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but mortgage rates are again at record lows, with lenders offering 30-year loans at an average of 3.84%, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows. That's down from 3.88% last week and a previous record low of 3.87% in February. All of the rates would have seemed unimaginable as recently as 2008, when the 30-year rate averaged more than 6%, or 2009, when the typical rate exceeded 5%. The 15-year fixed mortgage also dropped to a new record, according to Freddie Mac, the big government-supported loan buyer. The latest survey, released Thursday, showed the typical lender offering rate was 3.07% this week, down from 3.12% last week and its previous low point of 3.11%, set April 12. The one-year adjustable loan also set a new record, with a starting rate of 2.7%, although of course the cost of those loans can ratchet higher whenever rates rise again. Interest rates are at rock bottom because of the state of the economy and the inflation outlook, said Freddie Mac economist Frank Nothaft. Economic growth appeared to be slowing early this week, when the survey was taken, creating stronger demand for the guaranteed returns offered on the mortgage bonds that Freddie Mac and its sister Fannie Mae create. What’s more, Nothaft said, there was little fear than inflation would start eating into returns on fixed-income securities any time soon and thus little chance the Fed would reverse its efforts to stimulate the economy by keeping rates low. The widely watched Freddie Mac survey, which has tracked 30-year rates for more than 40 years, presumes the borrowers have solid credit and 20% down payments or equity in their homes. It asks lenders what rates they are offering on loans of up to $417,000 to these borrowers assuming they pay less than 1% of the loan amount upfront in lender fees and points. In Thursday's survey, the borrowers would have paid an average 0.8% of the loan balance to the lender on the 30-year fixed mortgage, and 0.7% for the 15-year fixed loan. Borrowers with good credit who shop around frequently obtain slightly better rates than those in the survey. They also can obtain lower rates by paying additional discount points to their lender upfront. www.latimes.com/business/money/fi-mo-mortgage-rates-20120503,0,2377826.story
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Post by jeffolie on May 4, 2012 11:25:10 GMT -6
NO Mortgage for you...lenders too tight for most This piece misses the essential reason mortgage rates have declined: Europe decline causes lower US rates as money to buy safe haven Treasuries lowers American rates: 1.88% Ten Year Treasury notes www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_yearmy jeffolie prediction of in the area of 1% 10 Year Treasury notes when the Eurozone collapses would drive mortage rates still lower than the lasted record low. The window of lower rates in my opinion has much more to go from here. ========================================= "Rates are dropping on signs of slowing economic growth, which isn't good for consumer confidence or housing demand. ... Mortgage loan rates are touching new 60-year lows, but many consumers won't be able to take advantage of them. " ... The lower rates will likely spur some homeowners to refinance, economists say. But mortgage standards remain so tight that many people won't qualify for a loan if they want to buy a house. Disappointing economic growth helped drive fixed 30-year mortgages down to an average of 3.84% this week, says mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That bested the previous record low of 3.87% in February. www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-05-03/mortgage-rates-new-record-lows/54720362/1
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Post by jeffolie on May 11, 2012 15:43:29 GMT -6
3.78% 30 year fixed ... yet again a new record low Driven down by fear of the Eurozone recession and collapsing EU, US rates declined this week. I expect that when the final expectations of collapse peak the belwo 10 year will be in the arena of 1.0% which drives mortgage rates even lower. 1.85% 10 Year Treasury Note ... ICAPSD: 10_YEAR www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/historical" ... 7) For those looking to buy a home or refi, avg 30 yr mortgage rate falls to new low at 3.78% according to Bankrate.com... " ======================== Weekly Eurozone Watch: Spain at 6.0%, Greece Blows Out Succinct summation of week’s events (05/11/2012) By Peter Boockvar - May 11th, 2012, 3:00PM Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives: 1) Initial Jobless Claims total 367k, below 370k for 2nd week after previous 3 weeks above 380k. 2) UoM confidence in May rises 1.4 pts to best since Jan ’08, one yr inflation expectations fall to lowest since Dec ’10. 3) Gasoline prices fall another .06 on the week to $3.73, the lowest since late Feb according to AAA. 4) JOLTS data reveal most amount of job openings since July ’08. 5) US exports rise to record high in March but so do imports mostly due to petro. 6) NFIB small business optimism index up 2 pts to highest since Dec ’07. 7) For those looking to buy a home or refi, avg 30 yr mortgage rate falls to new low at 3.78% according to Bankrate.com. 8) US PPI unexpectedly falls .2% m/o/m and y/o/y gain of 1.9% below 2% for 1st time since Oct ’09 (core rate though remains elevated), April Import Prices fall more than expected. 9) Factory Orders and IP in Germany in March surprise to upside, somewhat dated data and likely to change but points to resilience of its economy. 10) Chinese CPI falls to 3.4% y/o/y gain in April from 3.6% and PPI outright falls for 2nd straight month. 11) Job gains in Australia and Canada well above expectations. Negatives: 1) In response to chaos in Greece, newly issued Greek bonds fall to new lows, Greek stocks fall 11% on the week to lowest since 1992. Hugo Chavez shouldn’t be the Greek electorate’s role model. 2) Spain’s 10 yr yield rises back to 6%, 5 yr CDS up at record high, IBEX index trades to lowest since ’03 but bounces off it. 3) Spain wants its banks to write off another 30b euros but market wanted 50b, rip the band aid off already I say. 4) In China, retail sales, IP, money supply, bank loans, imports and exports all rise less than expected confirming further the slowdown. 5) India IP in March falls 3.5% vs expectations of a gain of 1.7%. www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/succinct-summation-of-weeks-events-05112012/
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Post by jeffolie on May 31, 2012 14:47:13 GMT -6
Mortgage Rates Plummet - 15-Year Fixed Below 3 Pctnews.yahoo.com/mortgage-rates-plummet-15-fixed-below-3-pct-142527335--abc-news-topstories.html30-year mortgage rate falls to record 3.75%www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/story/2012-05-31/mortgage-rates-record-low/55305180/11.52% 10 Year Treasury Note ICAPSD: 10_YEAR www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year$82.0 billion sent abroad most likely some used to drive down US Treasuries yields as the US 10 YR Note demand resulted in 1.52% yield during May 31st trading." ... the credit ratings of eight regions were cut. ... Bank of Spain data showed a net 66.2 billion euros ($82.0 billion) was sent abroad last month, the most since records began in 1990. ...Fitch Ratings downgraded eight regions on Thursday, warning that a failure from the government to adopt new measures would result in further ratings cuts." ============================== Money flies out of Spain, regions pressured May 30 2012 Spaniards alarmed by the dire state of their banks are squirreling money abroad at the fastest rate since records began, figures showed on Thursday, and the credit ratings of eight regions were cut. Spain is the next country in the firing line of the euro zone's debt crisis, with spendthrift regions and shaky banks threatening to blow a hole in state finances and pushing funding costs towards levels that signal the need for a bailout. The European Commission gave new help on Wednesday, offering direct aid from a euro zone rescue fund to recapitalize Spanish banks and more time for Madrid to reduce its budget deficit. That helped lower the risk premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than the German benchmark on Thursday, but it remained close to the euro-era record, at 520 basis points. Bank of Spain data showed a net 66.2 billion euros ($82.0 billion) was sent abroad last month, the most since records began in 1990. The figure compares to a 5.4 billion net entry of funds during the same month one year ago. Spaniards are worried about the health of their banks, hit by their exposure to a 2008 property crash, and have been sending money to deposit accounts in stronger economies of northern Europe. The capital flight data predates the nationalization of Spain's fourth biggest lender Bankia (BKIA.MC) in May when it became clear the bank could not handle losses from bad real estate investments, compounded by a recession. Spain's centre-right government has contracted independent auditors to assess the health of its financial system in an effort to restore faith in its banks. www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/31/us-spain-economy-idUSBRE84U08N20120531================================ Mortgage Rates Plummet - 15-Year Fixed Below 3 PctIf you can get a new mortgage or refinance an existing one, interest rates have fallen to incredible new lows. Interest on a 15-year loan has dropped below 3 percent for the first time ever, according to data from Freddie Mac. The average rate on the 30-year loan fell to 3.75 percent. That's down from 3.78 percent last week and the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s. The 15-year mortgage rate is down to 2.97 percent this week from 3.04 percent last week. The 15-year loan is often used for refinancing, that is if you can get the bank to call you back and then meet the requirements. If the economy doesn't fall apart in other ways, these low rates may help the housing market as we are now in the buying season. news.yahoo.com/mortgage-rates-plummet-15-fixed-below-3-pct-142527335--abc-news-topstories.html-------------------------------------------------------------- 30-year mortgage rate falls to record 3.75% Workers at the American Dream home buyers and mortgage relief event at the Jacob. K. Javits Center on April 26, 2012 in New York City. Low rates have helped brighten the outlook for home sales this year. They have made home-buying and refinancing more attractive to those who can qualify. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan fell to 3.75%. That's down from 3.78% last week and the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s. STORY: Foreclosure home sales rise in 1Q The 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing option, slipped to 2.97%. That's down from 3.04% last week. Rates on the 30-year loan have been below 4% since early December. The low rates are a key reason the housing industry is showing modest signs of a recovery this year. A drop in rates could also provide some help to the economy if more people refinance. When people refinance at lower rates, they pay less interest on their loans and have more money to spend. In April, sales of both previously occupied homes and new homes rose near two-year highs. Builders are gaining more confidence in the market, breaking ground on more homes and requesting more permits to build single-family homes later this year. A better job market also has made more people open to buying a home. Employers have added 1 million jobs in the past five months. The unemployment has dropped a full percentage point since August, from 9.1% to 8.1% in April. Still, the pace of home sales remains well below healthy levels. Economists say it could be years before the market is fully healed. Many people are having difficulty qualifying for home loans or can't afford larger down payments required by banks. Some would-be home buyers are holding off because they fear that home prices could keep falling. Mortgage rates have been dropping because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has fallen this week to a 66-year low. Uncertainty about how Europe will resolve its debt crisis has led investors to buy more Treasury securities, which are considered safe investments. As demand for Treasurys increase, the yield falls. To calculate average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country on Monday through Wednesday of each week. The average does not include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1% of the loan amount. The average fee for 30-year loans was 0.8, unchanged from last week. The fee for 15-year loans also was steady, at 0.7. The average rate on one-year adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.75%. The fee for one-year adjustable rate loans was 0.4, also unchanged from last week. www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/story/2012-05-31/mortgage-rates-record-low/55305180/1
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 5, 2012 19:18:26 GMT -6
Mortgage rates fall to record lowsThe average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 3.62% this week from 3.66% last week, Freddie Mac says. The 15-year fixed rate drops to 2.89% from 2.94%. july 6, 2012 Freddie Mac said borrowers would have paid on average 0.8% of the loan amount to the lenders to obtain the 30-year loan at the record low rate and 0.7% of the amount on the 15-year loan. www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-rates-20120706,0,3617130.story
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 18, 2012 17:54:46 GMT -6
Record-Low Mortgage Rates May Lift Housing: U.S. Economy Preview Nov 17, 2012 The lowest mortgage rates on record probably helped keep sales of previously owned U.S. homes close to a two-year high in October, and underpinned construction of new residences, economists said before two reports this week. Purchases of existing dwellings held at a 4.75 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s report from the National Association of Realtors. Housing starts eased in October to an 840,000 pace from a four-year high of 872,000 units in September, Commerce Department figures may show Nov. 20. Purchases of existing dwellings held at a 4.75 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s report from the National Association of Realtors. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Demand for residential real estate is also being propelled by more affordable properties, progress in the labor market and improving consumer sentiment. The data underscore what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called “signs of improvement” in the market, which is helping fuel the expansion as manufacturing cools. “Housing has definitely become a bright spot in the economy, while all the international-facing sectors are doing much worse,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. The economy should sustain a “modest recovery” through year-end, she said. Existing-home sales have improved after reaching a 3.39 million annual rate in July 2010, the lowest since comparable records began in 1999. In the buildup to the subprime lending collapse and recession, purchases reached a peak of 7.25 million in September 2005. Builder Confidence Confidence among homebuilders, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index, held at 41 in November, the highest since June 2006, data tomorrow may show. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents still said conditions were poor. The average rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage declined to 3.34 percent last week, the lowest in data going back to 1972, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index has advanced 70 percent since the end of last year, outpacing the 8.1 percent gain in the broader S&P 500. The housing market would accelerate even more if it was accompanied by a bigger pickup in employment, according to homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) The Fort Worth, Texas-based company, which is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings last week that beat analysts’ estimates. D.R. Horton “What we’re seeing is improvement off of an extremely low bottom in the housing market,” William Wheat, chief financial officer at D.R. Horton, said at a Nov. 15 conference. “We’re seeing small amounts of job growth right now. We’re going to need to see more over the long term. Jobs is the No. 1 driver for housing demand.” Companies added 184,000 workers to payrolls in October, the most since February, Labor Department figures showed earlier this month. “Continued weakness in housing -- reflected in falling prices, low rates of new construction, and historic levels of foreclosure -- has proved a powerful headwind to recovery,” Bernanke said last week. “It is encouraging, therefore, that we are seeing signs of improvement in the housing market in most parts of the country.” The Fed chairman is pressing on with record easing including a plan to buy $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities, in a bid to spur growth and reduce a 7.9 percent unemployment rate. Fed’s Bernanke While tighter credit standards after a collapse in the subprime mortgage market were appropriate, “it seems likely at this point that the pendulum has swung too far the other way, and that overly tight lending standards may now be preventing creditworthy borrowers from buying homes, thereby slowing the revival in housing and impeding the economic recovery,” Bernanke said. Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee said monthly mortgage bond purchases by the Fed are “likely to reinforce the nascent recovery in the housing market,” according to minutes of their Oct. 23-24 meeting released Nov. 14. The housing starts figures may soon reflect the effects of Sandy, the biggest Atlantic storm on record. Construction and home repair companies may get a lift from rebuilding in New Jersey and New York. The storm may provide a boost similar to that provided by Hurricane Irene, which added about $360 million in sales last year, Home Depot Inc. (HD) executives said on a Nov. 13 earnings call. “The property damage, as we understand it, related to Irene was about $16 billion; the property damage for Sandy is about $20 billion, so it would suggest possibly higher sales, but it’s impossible for us to know right now,” said Carol Tome, the Atlanta-based company’s chief financial officer. Bloomberg Survey ============================================================== Release Period Prior Median Indicator Date Value Forecast ============================================================== Exist Homes Mlns 11/19 Oct. 4.75 4.75 NAHB Housing Index 11/19 Nov. 41 41 Housing Starts ,000’s 11/20 Oct. 872 840 Housing Starts MOM% 11/20 Oct. 15.0% -3.7% U of Mich Conf. Index 11/21 Nov. F 84.9 84.5 LEI MOM% 11/21 Oct. 0.6% 0.1% ============================================================== www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-18/record-low-mortgage-rates-may-lift-housing-u-s-economy-preview.html
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Nov 19, 2012 0:23:42 GMT -6
In the same month in 2009 (November), Existing Home Sales were 6.1 million, much higher than the predicted 4.75 million for next week. Thats a -22% decline since Nov 2009. In other words, since 2009, home sales have gotten MUCH worse. The phony upticks in every category can always be contrived by simply comparing the numbers with a highly-selected worse time period.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 19, 2012 12:18:41 GMT -6
In the same month in 2009 (November), Existing Home Sales were 6.1 million, much higher than the predicted 4.75 million for next week. Thats a -22% decline since Nov 2009. In other words, since 2009, home sales have gotten MUCH worse. The phony upticks in every category can always be contrived by simply comparing the numbers with a highly-selected worse time period. I continue to be very bearish long term on Single Family Houses because the 2 most important demand motivations are bearish: 1. declining median income for households 2. declining family formations of 2 good incomes capable of affording a Single Family House mortgage PLUS THE DESIRE TO HAVE CHILDREN. Both these 2 continue to trend down. In 2011 I started a thread predicting a decline to 50% ownership.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Nov 19, 2012 12:55:21 GMT -6
biz.yahoo.com/c/e.htmlExisting Home Sales came in a 4.79 million, only slightly above the previously reported 4.75 million. Oh, but wait! Last month's sales were revised down to 4.70 million--or about 50,000 less than originally reported. Surprise, surprise! That makes the 4.79 million number look much better.
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Post by jeffolie on Dec 9, 2012 16:24:21 GMT -6
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