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Post by nailbender on Sept 7, 2009 21:59:44 GMT -6
That is quite a view of China. 35 Million unemployed since thru March. Can you imagine the carnage since then?
Free Trade and Capitalism unleashed for pennies on the $.
The multi national corporations are no more than modern day plantation owners.
By the looks of things, I don't think you'll have to wait until 2013.
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Post by nailbender on Sept 7, 2009 0:49:13 GMT -6
Thanks for Carl Herman's link. It looks like he "sees" it.
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Post by nailbender on Sept 6, 2009 0:49:46 GMT -6
The Chinese are already talking about "bailing" on derivatives that aren't going their way. Am I the only one that sees this possible scenario? cross post... ----------------- @ulvy-I sort of wonder if something like that could happen. What would happen if we get into a trade war and China starts to ban specific products exported to the U.S. Would they target U.S. owned manufacturing companies and their products? Put the owner U.S. owner out of business. ------------ nailbender- When this crap pile of lies collapses, it's going to be worse than a "trade war". The terms "nationalization" and "confiscation of assets" come to mind. When Uncle Sam starts it's "Desperation Printing Scheme" to cover the $23 Trillion in financial guarantees coupled with the Trillions in SS "promises" that CANNOT be covered with tax collections, China, the Worlds #1 slave owner, will rightfully be pissed and determine ALL US investments on their soil now belong to China. Bomber, not only will your friend go out of business. (friend has a pencil factory in China, he was forced to "relocate" in 2000 to stay competitive) He will no longer have his Capital (manufacturing facility/tooling) either. This will be the price he pays for globalization and the offshoring of 1100 jobs. Those pencils won't seem to cheap then. I'm not saying your friend had any choices. Our Korporate Amerikan Gov set the terms for their game. In this game of profit, the US middle class gets a "cliff drop" to 3rd world status.
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Post by nailbender on Sept 2, 2009 23:18:01 GMT -6
Yup, all true. Korporate America is gonna bleed us for every dollar it can, until it can't. One day this gov will start to represent the people again, or it won't...
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Post by nailbender on Aug 31, 2009 16:41:22 GMT -6
unlawflcombatnt- Every time I look at the Great Depression, I think of Denninger's comments about "pulling demand forward." ------------------------ I agree, KD's see's the problem with "pulling demand forward". At best it may be used as a "temporary" stimulus, but it is certainly not a replacement for a productive manufacturing economic base. I see the similarities of the debt/credit bubble of the GD and our GD2.0 striking. I find it interesting how Keen's says neo-classical economists do not consider debt levels or quality of debt to have any impact on their economic functions. It is as though they are completely blind to debt assuming it is wealth. I also agree on your comment of the striking similarity of skewed "top tiered "wealth distribution" between then and now. the concept of "trickle down" economics should have been ruled a "myth" by the events surrounding the GD. It appears MUCH higher taxes for those making $200,000 or more must be implemented, but I am not sure this is the correct solution to a more equitable means of "wealth distribution". I do not support the incredible amount of spending being done by the gov. An alternative could be labor owned enterprises, where wages are limited/regulated throughout the business with the profit being divided equally in the form of a dividend. The question remains how to support the slice of the population that does not/ can not/ or will not work. I would think supplying this group with low skilled/ low wage community based work would be better than issuing welfare checks for ever. Just to clarify, I do not own the Bernanke's book and have not read it all. I do not believe he actually authored much of the text in the book, it was mostly "copy/paste" of past author's essay's repackaged as "his" book. Take a look at the review. www.h-net.org/reviews/showpdf.php?id=4306
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Post by nailbender on Aug 30, 2009 23:17:40 GMT -6
It's the addiction to "immediate satisfaction". It works well for those peddling debt also.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 30, 2009 22:49:19 GMT -6
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Post by nailbender on Aug 30, 2009 22:46:42 GMT -6
Mish had a great interview with Max Keiser on Fri. ---------- Mish Videos - On the Edge with Max Keiser globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/-------------------- He makes a comment on Smoot-Hawley that I do not agree with and have called him on it several times. Here is my reply. ---------------- I believe Mish did a great job during the interview, but I can't believe he tied in the "Smoot-Hawley Fairytale" into the discussion to reinforce his "Pro-Globalization"/"Free Trade" views. It is a terrible example, as are all I've read, to support "Free Trade" as it is a "Myth", an opinion backed up with zero data to support the claim, that it "made the GD worse" or did damage to international trade. I say the drop in trade in excess to the contraction in GDP was "CREDIT" related. As in there was very limited trade credit, or any type of credit for that matter, available between 1930-33. Lenders only borrowed to the most qualified applicants, as they wanted there collateral "local" and "liquid". The reduction in worldwide trade wasn't caused by Tariffs and Smoot-Hawley certainly didn't "make the GD worse". The reduction in trade was due to "tight" lending standards and lack of credit. Just look at how much mortgage lending contracticted, life insurance companies made $525 million in mortgage loans in 1929, and only made $10 million in 1933. data snip: Page 64 books.google.com/books?id=c2OSWhLjzJkC&pg=PA54&lpg=PA54&dq=debt+great+depression&source=bl&ots=80Knzhrpl_&sig=cNTH6g8X_jEzOc20DeyqWKeJwGo&hl=en&ei=2S2bSuKiH5SsNoXMoLYB&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10#v=onepage&q=debt%20great%20depression&f=false Free Markets and Free Trade do NOT exist in this world. Globalization and Free Trade agreements must be ended NOW to stop the dismantling/destruction of the US's economic base. -------------------- BTW...Judes, I was out of town and can't believe I missed the "Whirlpool" thread. Good job standing our ground, no one could touch your comments. I thought some of the comments were, for no better words, "scary". js-kit.com/api/static/pop_comments?ref=http%3A%2F%2Fglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com%2F%2F2009%2F08%2Fwhirlpool-plant-in-evansville-ind-shuts.html&path=%2F2009%2F08%2Fwhirlpool-plant-in-evansville-ind-shuts.html&permalink=http%3A%2F%2Fglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com%2F2009%2F08%2Fwhirlpool-plant-in-evansville-ind-shuts.html&label=Add%20New%20Comment&title=Mish%27s%20Global%20Economic%20Trend%20Analysis%3A%20Whirlpool%20Plant%20in%20Evansville%2C%20Ind.%20Shuts%20Down%2C%20Taking%201%2C100%20Jobs%20to%20Mexico&adminBgColor=%23DDDDDD
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Post by nailbender on Aug 26, 2009 17:35:00 GMT -6
Well said unlawflcombatnt.
The "middle class" has NO idea it is in a war to preserve it's standard of living. It's impossible to put up a good fight when you don't even know you are being attacked by the enemies within.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 22, 2009 19:51:46 GMT -6
Well, faxes and emails sure don't work. If it has come to this, then so be it.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 21, 2009 21:38:45 GMT -6
Pass the bottle, I mean bailout. I need some here.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 21, 2009 14:12:09 GMT -6
unlawflcombatnt is correct. I hope and expect the stimulus program will create jobs in America over the next year and thereby provide a stabilizing of housing prices sometime in 2010. jeff, I have to disagree with your stimulus view. Incurring gov debt will only mask/ artificially support our economy/ housing prices. It is impossible to solve a debt crisis by taking on more debt. I believe debt should only be incurred when it is aimed at increasing productivity/ efficiency. It should not be incurred by the guv, states, or individuals to pull demand artificially forward or support gov programs/spending that US economy cannot financially support/sustain through tax collections/ tariffs/ earnings. I believe Fekete has stated that the "Marginal Productivity of Debt" has actually gone negative. This means that for every $1 of debt the gov incurs results in less than $1 added GDP. The gov is slowly destroying GDP with it's insane borrowing and deficit spending.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 20, 2009 23:30:02 GMT -6
judes- It won't get better until we have jobs here, and good paying value added wealth producing jobs at that. --------------- Agreed, we not only need the lesser skilled jobs, but the highly skilled jobs like machining, tool & die, design, and engineering. I read an article a few days ago that speculated, as the "race" to offshore jobs accelerates (which is unbelievably occurring now) "innovation" will be next as the R&D shops follow the manufacturing facilities overseas. ouch! It appears that the exploitation of "technology" itself becomes a destructor of the middle class and a concentrator of wealth and power to the elite few without a new model ( or a return to much higher taxes for the wealthy) for the "distribution of wealth" to compensate for it's productive efficiency. Although it is probably better for the Earth"s natural environment, I do not see it being beneficial to humanity for the majority of it's people to become destitute, suffer and ultimately starve to death because it has been replaced by intelligent machines that are owned by a few.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 20, 2009 18:38:49 GMT -6
I am amazed that NO one, including the so called economists with 1/2 a brain, cannot connect the dots.
Unrelenting job losses are the ONLY possible result from Globalization, outsourcing, offshoring, and the destruction of the middle class.
It is tragic how the "middle class taxpayer" has been renamed the "consumer" since they NO longer produce enough to be considered the "backbone of the economy" and will NO longer have a job enabling them to pay taxes or payoff a mortgage.
Our economy has NO "spine" and will NOT experience anything that resembles a recovery until it grows one.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 20, 2009 10:51:31 GMT -6
Thanks for the History Channel heads up. I'll look for it.
As far as the movie goes, Charlie Wilson's lines at the end of the movie are very relevant.
1. The average Afghan doesn't know the US was responsible for weaponizing of the resistance.
2. Why are we leaving Afghan, now that we've forced the Soviets to leave, when they need us the most. The US could come up with a $1 Billion covert budget to make war, yet when it was over, could not come up with $1 million dollars for new schools. This left a "power void" that the Taliban was eager to fill.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 20, 2009 0:13:39 GMT -6
FWIW, if you are interested in Afgan/Pak, you should see this movie. ------------------- Wiki snip... From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Charlie Wilson's War is a 2007 biographical drama film based on the true story of Democratic Texas Congressman Charlie Wilson, who conspired with "bare knuckle attitude" CIA operative Gust Avrakotos to launch Operation Cyclone, which initiated and organized the Afghan Mujahideen in their resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The film is adapted from George Crile's 2003 book Charlie Wilson's War: The Extraordinary Story of the Largest Covert Operation in History. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Wilson%27s_War
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Post by nailbender on Aug 19, 2009 23:57:03 GMT -6
@ed- Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in June of 1930 when the unemployment rate was at a whopping 6.3%................................. We were not in a Depression that early. The facts can be painful. ----------------------
The "painful fact" you astutely point out IS the basis/argument for the "Fairy Tale", because there is NO data correlation to substantiate the claim that Smoot-Hawley "caused" the GD or for that matter "made the GD worse".
What I find interesting is there is NO data or study that examines how many jobs and industries were SAVED by tariffs or Smoot-Hawley. I find it disturbing that the "missing" side of the coin is found no where in the "history" books.
The GD was caused by massive overproduction capacity built on a pyramid of debt and speculation during the 20' and had nothing to do with Smoot-Hawley. The GD only lasted 4 years as the writedowns of bad debt were allowed by Hoover to occur "naturally". The GD2.0 that we are entering will be MUCH worse as our gov policy, the solution to a debt problem is simply solved by incurring more debt, will implode at some point in the not to distant future.
Allowing debt to be defaulted on will not result in any "recovery" however. Not until we rebuild our job producing, industrial manufacturing sector will there be any base for a recovery. Unless we are satisfied with a 3rd world living standard, high tariffs and the repudiation of all "Free Trade" agreements will have to be a prerequisite.
I suggest to those that continue to believe in "Fairy Tales" to wake up, because the "Nightmare" that we fear is upon us.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 19, 2009 22:46:32 GMT -6
I cannot think of (1) reason for any country that is not experiencing FULL, 100% utilized, employment to import ANYTHING that it can mine, manufacture, or grow domestically. This is BASIC economics.
End ALL "Free Trade" agreements/policies now.
What we are now experiencing is the collapse of the "Mask", a pyramid of un-repayable debt, that has concealed the destruction/dismantling of America's economic foundation over the last 20 years by the insatiable greed of Government Sachs and Corprakrats that "own" DC.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 10, 2009 16:04:47 GMT -6
@unlawflcombatnt-It's amazing how obvious this is. And it's more amazing that all the "experts" managing our economy don't readily acknowledge this. ------------------
You've hit the nail on the head with this comment and actually explains why their will be NO resolution to the problems we face until TPTB are unseated.
Government Sachs/FED know exactly what has happened and why. They DO NOT care what happens to you or me, this country, their competition. They only care about their own accumulation of wealth in their sick game of crony capitalism. They RUN this country and control BOTH parties, the red and the blue which are just different colors of the same paint.
Government Sachs and Corporate America need to be dislodged/cut off from the political process it currently completely controls. This will need to be done with DC term limits, lobbyist reforms, campaign donation reforms/ eliminating corporate donations, and closing the revolving door between Wall Street and DC.
There is no doubt in my mind that a continuation of the current government policies will result in 3rd world standard of living/ status for the US.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 10, 2009 15:36:01 GMT -6
Agreed, redistribution of wealth is another "problem" that is going to have to be confronted and resolved before any sustainable recovery can take place.
Wall Steet and the criminal banking syndicate need to be reined in/starved, they are skimming and hording to much wealth. This is one of the reasons I promote "State Banks", these banks would have the welfare of their states economies their top priority, not the size of their bonus's.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 10, 2009 11:24:36 GMT -6
Here is an excellent essay on the current financial implosion. Thomas Palley understands the "current" neo-liberal economic policies of "Globalization" that have undermined the US economy since 1980 must be reversed/eliminated before there will be an sustainable recovery of our economy. ----------------------- America’s Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession. snip... The case for paradigm change has yet to be taken up politically. Those who built the neoliberal system remain in charge of economic policy. Among mainstream economists who have justified the neo-liberal system, there has been some change in thinking when it comes to regulation, but there has been no change in thinking regarding the prevailing economic paradigm. This is starkly illustrated in the debate in the United States over globalization, where the evidence of failure is compelling. Yet, any suggestion that the United States should reshape its model of global economic engagement is brushed aside as “protectionism.”, which avoids the real issue and shuts down debate. www.newamerica.net/files/Thomas_Palley_America%27s_Exhausted_Paradigm.pdf
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Post by nailbender on Aug 10, 2009 11:20:40 GMT -6
There is another HUGE effect the illegal and legal foreign worker places on the economy. The amount of USD "leakage" from our domestic economy as these workers directly export $Billions as they transfer their earnings/savings back to their "home" countries to support their families. This money NEVER recirculates through our economy creating a multiplier effect.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 9, 2009 23:45:25 GMT -6
xtra-how about kicking out the illegals, that to me sounds like the first step. ------------------ Agreed, securing our borders should have been done decades ago.
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Post by nailbender on Aug 9, 2009 0:13:37 GMT -6
I do agree every state needs to create it's own bank and operate under very strict rules. I do not believe these new banks should be able to expand state spending with deficit budgets.
I believe state banks are an option can provide the things that are missing from the corporate lending system.
1. sound/conservative lending practices 2. minimized fees 3. morales 4. social responsibility 5. realistic employee compensation
I believe the advantages to state banks are:
1. deposits are unreachable by the Wall Street 2. states can underwrite/issue their own bond sales keeping fees in the states economy. 3. no FDIC insurance premiums eliminating fee skimming, funds are guaranteed by the state 4. elimination of corporate compensation looting 5. secure jobs 6. funding base, offering economical rates, for productive investment/expansion 7. increased multiplier effect by eliminating "leakage", keeping funds instate
I do not live in ND, but believe the BND acts like a central bank for smaller affiliated banks providing check clearing, regulation, liquidity, etc.
BND yearly "plows" back a state dividend, about 1/2 of it's profits, back to the states general fund. BND is all about servicing, sustaining, and funding North Dakota's state economy and NOT Wall Street.
How can this not help the situation? It's not a "fix all" for all the problems, but I believe it is a start/base. ---------------
BTW, 1st post here. I'll lend moral support, if nothing else, to endure the unfolding fiscal/trade disaster we are experiencing.
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